New England Patriots (10-5) at Buffalo Bills (7-8), 1 p.m. ET, CBS-TV (Ch. 4)

It’s somewhat fitting that the Patriots don’t have destiny in their own hands as they enter the final weekend of the season, needing a win over the Bills and some help to make playoffs for a sixth straight season.

After all, from the moment Bernard Pollard’s helmet crashed into Tom Brady’s left knee, the Patriots have seemed destined to rely on unlikely scenarios to get even this far in the season. Matt Cassel has turned into a legitimate No. 1 quarterback, leading the team to 10 wins and the brink of another playoff appearance.

There were also the injuries to Rodney Harrison, Adalius Thomas, Tedy Bruschi, Pierre Woods, Eric Alexander and Laurence Maroney. The New York Jets took off with 39-year-old Brett Favre calling the signals. There was the emergence of the 1-15 Dolphins to a playoff contender with their fate and that of the Patriots in their own hands. Talk about a football world turned upside down in 12 months. This must be what the NFL looks like from Down Under.

And we would be remiss if we didn’t break down the playoff scenarios, or least let the NFL do it for us.

Any and all playoff possibilities for New England start with a win. Lose and the 4:15 games involving the Dolphins-Jets and Jaguars-Ravens are irrelevant, at least to the Pats, who would have to watch the playoffs on TV.

If the Ravens lose at home to Jacksonville, the Patriots clinch at least an AFC wild card with a win or tie. The Pats also clinch a wild-card with a win and a Baltimore tie.

The better scenario involves the Patriots winning and the Dolphins losing or tying their contest. That would give the Patriots the AFC East title for the sixth straight year and assure them of hosting at least one playoff game at Gillette next weekend. A New England tie and a Miami loss would also get the job done.

“Maybe there’ll be some TVs on the plane to watch (the games) and we’ll find out that way,” Logan Mankins said of the team’s plans to jet back to New England instead of waiting around in Buffalo for their fate to be determined.

But first things first, here’s what the Pats have to do to make late-afternoon football must-see TV in New England.

1. Run, run, run. Everyone from Matt Light to Logan Mankins to Matt Cassel agree, the key to the Patriots explosive offense in the three games since the loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Nov. 30 has been establishing a power running game behind Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan. In fact, the Patriots are having one of their best rushing seasons in the last 20 years, averaging 4.5 yards a carry, with 2,110 yards and 20 rushing TDs in 15 games. With 25 yards rushing Sunday, the Pats will have their best rushing season since gaining 2,331 yards in 1985.

“It’s been huge,” Cassel said of the running game. “Those guys have been running the ball great. All the running backs are doing a great job. The offensive line is blocking great up front and when you get a running game going it really opens up other dimensions of your offense. It kind of slows down the pass rush [and] wears out the defense. So, it’s huge if we can continue to get that going and continue to establish a run game. It will help all other aspects of the offense.”

Cassel added that the running game has been vital to an effective play-action passing game. “There’s no doubt. We were able to hit a few play actions last week and I think that goes hand in hand with a steady running game.”

2. Contain Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. Lynch is still the go-to guy in the backfield. He totaled 127 yards on 21 carries against the Jets two weeks ago and is as dangerous as they come. Jackson has averaged 4.2 yards this season on 103 carries with three touchdowns. Jackson is their man in the Wildcat, which Bill Belichick said on Friday the Bills have run about 20 times this season.

3. Red-Zone Ready. The Bills have allowed 27 and 23 points in their last two games but a closer look shows that the Patriots better focus inside the 20. The Bills are allowing a touchdown just 44. 4 percent of the time inside the 20, fifth-best in the NFL. The Bills also rank 10th in the NFL on third-down defense, getting off the field 63 percent of the time.

“Buffalo is one of the best red area and third-down defenses that we will face,” Belichick said. “They have one of the best in the league, period. So we have a lot of work to do there. Still the kicking game, especially this time of year, the conditions can be a factor. It’s a little unpredictable of what they will be and also what they will be at the time we are doing whatever we are doing: kicking off into the wind, dealing with the wind, rain or snow. We will keep working on all those situations as well. I think that’s helped us the last few weeks and it can easily be a factor on Sunday so we’ll just have to be ready for that. It’s a one-game season.”

4. Special teams. The Pats would be well advised to repeat their performance on Nov. 9 at Gillette when they held Leodis McKelvin in check on kickoffs and Roscoe Parrish in line on punt returns. Both are explosive as Parrish returned a punt 56 yards against the Jets two weeks ago and McKelvin returned a kickoff 98 yards for a TD against the Browns. The Patriots may catch a break with Parrish listed as doubtful with a bad knee. Punter Brian Moorman threw a 19-yard TD pass to Ryan Denney on a fake field goal way back in Week One in a win over Seattle.

5. Get to Trent Edwards/J.P. Losman. The best revenge the Patriots can get on Losman and the Bills for the fateful fumble against the Jets on Dec. 14 is by getting to the quarterback. The most crucial position on the field has been the most disruptive this season for Buffalo. Edwards started on Nov. 9 against the Patriots and was just 13-of-23 for 120 yards and a TD while being intercepted twice. He was benched following a dismal performance against the 49ers and replaced mid-game with Losman. He started the next two weeks before Edwards returned last week against Denver. Expect to see Edwards in the finale.

“I think Losman is a little more inclined to run. I think he has a little better running ability and scrambling ability, not that they call a lot of plays for him, but I think he has more of a tendency to if it’s not there pull it down and go,” Belichick said. “Edwards has more of a tendency to find someone to throw it to. Both have good arms, both are accurate. They use their receivers well. This is a team that it doesn’t really matter who they throw it to: [Kirk] Chambers, the backs, the tight ends, the receiving group. Edwards impresses me with his overall grasp and understanding the game, audibles, adjustments, coverage recognition and stuff like that. I think he does a real good job, not saying Losman doesn’t, but Edwards has been in there more and has done it more consistently.”

FINAL CUTS:

Pats left guard Logan Mankins said it’s simple, if we block, we’re likely to win.

Mankins doesn’t expect the Bills to mail it in on Sunday.

Matt Cassel said he can’t be worried about the possibilities.

FINAL TAKE:

Until the Bills actually beat the Patriots, you’ll hear about the streak and the dominance the Patriots have had over them. For the record, it’s 10 games and counting, 10 straight times the Bills have failed against New England and 14 of 15. It’s hard to imagine that with the Patriots’ season on the line, playing as well as they have and having the veteran leadership still on the field with Junior Seau, Mike Vrabel and Vince Wilfork, they don’t make it 11 in a row.

Patriots 31, Bills 20