The debate will rage on regarding whether or not Bill Belichick was correct in going for it on 4th-and-2 with 2:09 left at the Pats’ own 28, Sunday night. And while initially it appeared as though the majority by a landslide would be those disagreeing with Belichick’s decision, more and more have come out to support the strategy (as is supported by our current poll).

Many of those relying on the mathematical approach when deciphering an answer to this question are siding with Belichick, one of which being the folks at www.advancednflstats.com. This is what they wrote:

With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You’d have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats’ 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it’s pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.