Yeah maybe if they statiscal measurement Chattum could have the #1 pick in the draft…

when i think combine, the names of bey, ghoulston, mamula, mandarich, and jeff george pop up right away. not exactly a ringing endorsement. obviously, there have been some very strong and very fast guys who dominated the combine and subsequently dominated the nfl, but i’d say that the vast majority of those guys had great football sense and intangibles too. give me a kid that can lead by example and inspire his teammates. where’s the combine for that?

That was the best explanation of what is wrong with the recruiting process I’ve ever read! Yes – save the piles of cash on this foolishness for additional team training (and more scouting in unlikely places) and help make teams stronger.

Hit it right on the head!!!!!!!!!!! Common sense does not seem to apply to the NFL. Very enjoyable article. I look forward to more of the same from #58. MG

The Combine……..what a waste of money and what a shame what if the player gets hurt during the combine who takes care of him.This is the perfect explaination of whats wrong. Keep up the good work #58 and hope to see more of you here

Great job articulating your points Matt. I especially enjoyed the reference to abysmal asset allocation. Given that sports have become such a huge business in the US its amazing to me that further correlation analysis has not been done to weigh the risk/return of this investment. Don’t be fooled this is an investment on behalf of the league and its teams. Simple valuation and regression analysis would be an interesting case study.

On the football side how does one measure intangibles? Certainly not by 40 time or vertical leap (or even Wonderlick tests for that matter!). This is something that can only be measured in the locker room, on the field and in meetings. One could make the case a big part of the success the Pats have had this past decade was due to preparedness and intangibles. Some of the best & most impactful players of this decade in Tom Brady & Teddy Bruschi probably didn’t stack up well in the combine but they could play for me any day.

Couldn’t agree with you more, although, sometimes you do find players like a Chris Johnson who runs a 4.24 40 yard dash, draft stock sky rockets, and a couple years later leads the league in rushing.

Great way to put it and let people actually know how inefficient the process is. What a waste of time and money. It’s like saying “I’m hiring this guy because he went to a ‘Prestigious’ school and can surely do the work even though he has nothing to show for it.” It’s amazing how often stupidity prevails.

Really great insight, Matt. Keep the posts coming!

Very interesting perspective, but absolutely a solid argument. Similar to the way college teams pick players based on on field performance – rather than weight room performance.

I hope someone from the team I route for reads this and takes it to heart.

Great humor. Even better argument. Spread the word, and then maybe a franchise will take the challenge.

Great article and 100% truth.
There has been 1000′s of football players
who were great players that didn’t “pass the test”
If there were a test to test a players passion, heart
or energy I would do that and it would mean alot more
than some of the stuff they test for now………

Plus there has been a ton of players who have “passed the test”
who weren’t worth a crap as a team player…………..

Good Article Matt

You hit it on the head in your opening. The combine, much like the modern Super Bowl, exemplifies the big business of the NFL, which, unfortunately, does not always put the quality of the actual football product first.

Really great stuff from an NFL insider, this article should be slapped down on the desk in front of every owner, GM, coach and scout…. if its not a serious wake up call as to how to build a successful organization with real football talent then what the hell are we doing here.
Knock, knock….
Whose there?
Common Sense
Common sense who?
Get your head out of your ass and go read Chatham’s article on the combine.
Keep’em coming Chatham!

What a great explanation of what is wrong with the recruiting process!!!

Great insight and well written. Why can’t the combine be tweeked to more of a “skills competition” type format, where the players are put through drills that at least try to simulate game experiences.
Defensive:
Shedding a block
Pass rushing
Handling a double team
Form tackling
Offensive:
Passing under pressure
Reading blitzes
Blocking a blitz
Following a block
These could actually test whether or not these kids can actually play the game correctly.

This is not a “recruiting process”, it is a meat market. Teams select players, they don’t waste time convincing them to come play for their team. Did some of you get confused and think this was a college combine? Wow. And another thing, Matt makes some good points but he fails to recognize one thing: Taken in aggregate form these drills are all designed to test one thing: Athleticism. Period. Very easy to understand.

Right on Matt.
Too bad that there art test to measure Character, Heart,or Determination.
They are always taliking about the 40 speed but I believe there there’s a difference between track speed and footbal speed or game speed whatever you what to call it. There should be test to slimaulate game condictions.
Good article easy for the lay man to understand.

If we don’t measure broad jump then how will we know how well a player can dive into the end zone untouched?

NFL testing does not seem to pass the common sense test of predicting a how great one’s career would be in football. Yes, to a point, the tests measure how good an athlete his, which is needed, but there would have to be better indicators out there in determining football potential…. I would like to see a test the incorporates “football instincts” To me, that often times seems to be an overlooked attribute in football and needs to measured somehow?

Who gave this meatstick a thesaurus?

Although I’m definitely not “sports guy”, I found this article fascinating and a great inside look at how franchises use available metrics to determine a player’s potential. I found the piece very well written and a solid swipe at business as usual within the league. The current methodology seems quite flawed at best. I understand why teams go along with the NFL system but it seems strange that they aren’t reading more between the lines and put more weight on the NFL or their own personnel to dive a bit deeper.

Thanks for the column Matt. Looking forward to more…

@ Dina888, were you a Pats fan, you would know #58 to be very astute and well spoken. But I would love to see Mangini getting in Ghoulston’s face. That would be PRICELESS!!! Wonder if Tannenbaum or Mangini decided on that pick….

classic use of numbers not really meaning half of what happens on the field. i agree with what you are saying, what amount of “bad ass with a big heart” gets measured at the combine?

Ok let’s assume that these tests are not the ultimate way to make decisions on players’ skills. And I also agree that the only way to find out the real skills and abilities of a player is by observing him play on the field, with the tension of real games’ results and a 300 pound opponent running towards him at the same time. Then how are the teams going to make their selection.. ? based on what? they got to have a measurement..

I see a future GM in the making…

great article, great to read from a person who has actually gone through this, not just some reporter/critic.

keep ‘em coming chatham

BT your insightfulness is hard to be reckoned with…..as you so clearly stated these tests do indeed test for athleticism, but athleticism alone, that was Chatham’s point, thanks for making it again. Athletic drills, many of which we have all been doing in gym class since 3rd grade, are simply not a good measure of a player’s ability to play football at the professional level. In fact with about a good 6 months of training I think i could rattle off a pretty good showing at the combine, however I also know that if I were to be hit once by an NFL caliber Linebacker that i would likely wind up in a hospital bed trying to learn how to walk again. It’s the proverbial apples and oranges comparison……BT check out the olympics this week there is a lot of athleticism floating around the men’s figure skating competition, how do you think they would handle Ray Lewis in the open field?

It seems that the Oakland Raiders have been basing their last couple of drafts on combine results solely. That in itself should prove to other teams that the combine is a waste of time and money. Great article, now take your argument to the masses and get the anti-combine ball rolling!!

I definitely agree that personnel men on NFL squads often look too much into combine performances and not enough into how the guys play the game.

That being said, I think that putting the guys under the microscope – and seeing their physical acumen – should be part of the fact-finding process, although shouldn’t be THE only word. Seeing things up-close like footwork, technique and vertical do have some value (Although not sure why they have o-linemen do the vertical jump mind you).

Darrius Heyward Bey getting grabbed so high – while far from the only case – is more a product of an owner who’d stack his team with a stable of olympic track runners if he could. Apparently, they’re bringing Jackie Joyner Kersey into camp for help at the receiver position:P

Lastly, Ross Tucker’s article on cnnsi is a great compliment to your article and worth a read:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/ross_tucker/02/24/combine.questions/index.html?eref=sihp

Good job Matt!

A very entertaining and informative read. I personally like the analogy of the 300 yard shuttle. I know from personal experience that the test is not only grueling, but more importantly worthless. Also, I think most people would agree that the bench press is the most over-rated lift of all time.

Great points on the athleticism measuring tactics used by the NFL. I have to agree with “BT” on his point that states the Combine is meant to only test athleticism. However, I agree with Chatham on the point that the Combine results are too correlated with player salaries, yet are not an accurate reflection on future performance.

Keep doing your thing, Chatham. This article was an awesome read!!

Hey BT, this guy on my softball team runs a 4.6 40, and blows me away. However, he can’t catch a ball to save his life, and he throws like a girl. Does that mean he’s more athletic?

An interesting read on the faults of a great entertainment organization. Yes the NFL is sport, bit in its current form I would argue that it is entertainment focused. Yes, the combine is a ridiculous way to choose players, but it provides entertainment for all the fans going through post season withdrawl. It is he first glimmer of hope for the next season. Perhaps next year is the year. It keeps us watching and it keeps us talking.

But what would Mel Kiper do without a combine?????? Next time, keep a great fb talent analyst like Mel Kiper in mind before you write an article like this – Have some sensitivity, Matt. For Christ sake.

Obviously joking, Matt – Good read. –Nate

It is good to hear from someone who’s been in the trenches, as opposed to the pompous blow hards on the tube. The NFL seems to really be socked into a “Me too” mentality in this (and other) areas, despite the painfully small percentage of high combine-scoring players who make it in the real NFL world. I think it will take a fairly courageous coach/general manager/owner to break out of the pack, though. Good stuff – keep it coming!

Matt, you’re using your new found MBA skills to give a nice perspective on this practice. Didn’t even know this is how it worked but I already wish it didn’t. BOOM

I agree that the combine is too focused on measureables.
As mentioned in the article, look at Wes Welker and Tom Brady. A fast 40 time or a very strong arm shouldn’t make or break a player.

Well said Chatham. Tape don’t lie!

The team hasn’t been the same since you left.

EXC for Matt!!!

That’s a very solid analysis from somebody who really knows the business

It’s great Matt talks from two perspectives: investment and sport performance and how they impact on players and teams performance.

I am looking forward to read Matt’s next article.

Sounds like the education system today – a lot of test prep and not a lot of real life experiences. Scary what the outcome will be!

If you are the raiders, then this article makes sense. If you are the steelers patriots and any other well run team, you understand that the combine is an essential aspect of the draft process. The most important aspects are the team interviews and the medical examination. Those give the teams character and answer health concerns. As far as the physical events, its only important to see who the outliers are in context with your initial ideas of the player. You take those players and scout them more to see why you had such a poor view of their speed and quickness… remember for every vernon gholston there is a chris johnson.

the draft is a crapshoot anyways. There will always be busts and always be 7th round steals. getting rid of the combine might save the raiders from themselves but in my opinion i like the raiders this way.

I do question the value of the combine to a degree since most players now spend so much time preparing for how to excel at the drills themselves that it seems like the system is being gamed by people who can pay ‘trainers’ to prepare them. But… it does allow some smaller time players to show some physical skills they otherwise couldn’t, so there seems some value.

But it’s another place where the good front offices get to show that they interpret the data the right way and the idiots like Al Davis, who draft based totally on speed and physical skills, get another chance to screw up their drafting even more.

I am curious to know your perspective of the growing use of combines for high school players looking to get into colleges? There seems to be a new emphasis of getting your kids into the several national combine programs for rankings.

Completely agree- wish Danny Snyder would read this.

As a side note, you could do worse than shopping for a wife at the plastic surgeon…

Matty ~
Great writing and insightful to boot. Keep it going… I’m passing along to my buddies so keep it up!~
SR

Nice breakdown of today’s draft system. It’s interesting how the process forces players to dedicate an extensive amount time and energy on mastering “measurable tests” instead of focusing on the actual sport they will eventually be paid millions to play.

Great perspective.

Matt is right about what the combine has become and that’s unfortunate. But it came about to fill a need that will always exist. That need is for a common, unbiased assessment of criteria that are routinely lied about or exagerated by athletes, colleges and agents. Answers to questions about actual height, weight and health (particularly injuries and PED’s), and raw intelligence (Wonderlic is at least a consistent attempt). Without a check on these basics, teams would be at the mercy of several hundred “spin machines”, all stretching the truth to absurdity. All those drills that Matt points out …. no arguement from me. But there needs to be something.

Thanks Matt, not being a huge sports guru but your insight really did open my eyes! Keep the articles coming! Im interested!

Outstanding perspective! So refreshing to hear intelligent commentary from someone who actually knows what they are talking about. Very impressive article. Hope to read more from the man who chased after a naked man and tackled him in front of 100 million television viewers during SB 38

rlol at username “Al Davis.” Well written, Matt. I completely agree with your comments about the bench and I think it translates to other sports. Remember when some scouts were skeptical because Kevin Durant was having trouble lifting toothpicks in the gym before the draft? Look how that turned out.

I’ve often viewed the Combine’s primary value as not so much for evaluating players as for helping to separate the stupid scouts, GMs and owners from the guys who know what the heck they’re doing.

Good column, and you certainly know more about the NFL than me. I agree that you can’t pick football players based on workout stats alone. However, I don’t think there’s no value to the combine because some workout warriors have gotten drafted higher than they should have. The results should be taken as just another data point to be used in making an important decision. It’s probably especially valuable for the guy who may have played at a smaller/lesser name school (such as say, University of South Dakota) as it gives him a chance to show how he stacks up against top FBS talent in measurables. Plus there’s probably more going on behind the scenes than just the workout numbers fans see. It’s a chance for teams to meet with a lot of prospects in one place. Also a chance for athletes to make a case to a number of teams at once instead of having to perform individual drills for all. Until something better comes along the Combine will be there.

Great article. Valid points on all fronts. The nfl is a business first and foremost and they have gotten caught up in the “numbers” generated by the combine drills. These drills do not denote playing ability. Only game film does that. Thats why you need good scouts with an eye for football players. Athletes are great to have as long as their talents carry over to the game of football.

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Whether or not the combine events are useful, they are definitely interesting. And I like to know that I have a better vertical leap than Tom Brady.

It’s called G-A-M-E FILM. See how players stack up against some of the best teams and college and draft from there. Although that’s hit or miss to.

It’s just a game

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