| Nuggetpalooza’s Gameday Preview: Colts at Patriots | 11.19.10 at 9:11 am ET |
Another Sunday for the Patriots, another marquee game, this time at home against the Colts. Sure, Indy is banged up, but as long as number 18 is under center for the Horseshoes, it’s a ballgame. Can’t wait… again.
Because I am not a fan of the current “passer ratings” used by the NFL (mainly because of it’s complexity), I have begun using one from the New York Times that I have slightly modified. Basically, it takes the average yards per pass play (including sacks) compared to the league average and adjusts it up based on touchdown percentage and down based on interception percentage. Simple as that. So when I mention that this team or that team has the best or worst “overall passing game (or defense)”, it’s based on this rating (which is generally expressed as a positive or negative number)… at least for now. I hope you like it.
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* – Two great quarterbacks, but contrasting styles for sure: Here are the teams with the most pass attempts more than 10 yards downfield in 2010:
130 – Colts
121 – Broncos
119 – Chargers
And here are the teams with the fewest such attempts:
73 – Patriots
73 – Jaguars
74 – Rams
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* – This ain’t like Peyton: Over the Colts’ last three games, Manning has completed only 12-of-43 passes over 10 yards downfield (28 percent). In their three games before that? 24-for-47 (51 percent). He’s completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes to wide receivers in each of the last three games. First such three game streak for the Colts since 2007.
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* – The Patriots completed seven passes on throws more than 10 yards downfield last weekend. They only had six such completions in their previous three games combined.
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* – The Patriots (41.3 percent) and the Colts (41.0 percent) rank second and third in the NFL in scoring efficiency. Of course, what else is new? Last season, the Patriots were fourth (41.0% percent) and the Colts were seventh (37.9 percent).
In 2008, the Pats ranked first (44.8 percent even without Brady) while the Colts were fifth (40.7 percent).
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* – The Colts are the only team that has scored 17 or more points in every game this season.
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* – New England (6) and Indianapolis (3) have combined to score nine “return” touchdowns this season. However, they’ve only ALLOWED one between them (New England, 1).
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* – After scoring a touchdown on their first possession of the first AND second halfs last Sunday, New England now has 56 “first possession” points (combined opening possessions of first and second halfs). That’s the most in the NFL.
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* – The Patriots now lead the league at converting 3rd-and-short (five yards or less), having moved the chains at a 64.4 percent clip. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the Pats are last at stopping third downs overall (47.5 percent) and 31st at stopping 3rd-and-10 or more (32.3 percent). Only the Jets are worse (36.2 percent).
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* – The Colts have lost just 63 yards on sacks this season, the fewest in the NFL. Last Sunday, the Patriots sacked Ben Roethlisberger for 38 yards in losses, just their second time over 30 yards in their last 24 road games. They averaged 13.2 sack yards over that 24 game stretch.
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* – Over the last four weeks, the Patriots have averaged an NFL-low 12.3 yards per kickoff return and they are now 18th for the season (22.4). The Colts’ kickoff coverage has had their troubles this season as well, having held opponents under 20 yards just 22 percent of the time (last).
By the way, the lowest kickoff return average for a season by a team with multiple touchdown returns is 18.0, by the 1990 Bears. Only four teams since 1970 have had two or more touchdown returns and ended the season with an average under 20.
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* – The Patriots are the only NFL team with five “turnover-free” games in 2010. This after they had only two such games last season. Since 1991, they’ve only had six such games in three different seasons (1997, 2001, 2007). The record since 1991?
Nine games with no turnovers by the 2008 Giants.
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* – New England’s Tom Brady is ranked second in passing accuracy (72.9 percent of passes catchable) while Indy’s Peyton Manning ranks third (71.0 percent). Leading the league is New Orleans’ Drew Brees (74.1 percent). The Pats and Colts ranked third and fourth at this last season (with Favre’s Vikings first and Brees second).
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* – Patriots receivers are tied (with the lowly Panthers) for the highest drop rate in the NFL (12.1 percent of catchable balls).
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* – New England broke the 400-yard mark last Sunday against Pittsburgh, snapping a streak of five games in a row with under 400 total yards. Their last streak of five such games came in 2008, the first five games of the season (when Brady was hurt). The last time with Brady? An eight-game stretch in 2006.
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* – The Colts lead the NFL in passing first downs per game (16.0) while the Patriots defense has allowed the most such first downs (15.3). New England has allowed 20 or more first downs in eight of their nine games this season.
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* – Only five NFL teams’ defenses have not forced their opponent into a turnover following a giveaway by their own offense.
Two of those five are the Pats and Colts (along with Philly, Pittsburgh, and Denver).
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* – After entering last week with a less than stellar three and out percentage (25.6 percent), Brady and the boys were forced into a three and out just once against the Steelers.
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* – The Colts rank second in drives of 10 or more plays this season (23) and are third at cashing those in (4.52 average points). New England’s defense has allowed 18 such drives (30th) and allowed points on 17 of them (94 percent, last).
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* – New England is +15 in first quarter scoring margin so far in 2010. If it holds, it would be their 11th consecutive season with at least a +10 in the opening period. Who has the second longest streak? The Colts (7).
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* – The Patriots and Browns are the only NFL teams yet to allow a first quarter pass play of 25 or more yards. Indy’s defense has allowed only three such gains since the start of last season, tied with the Packers for the fewest in that span.
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* – New England has not thrown a second quarter interception in their last 19 games, the longest current streak in the league. The second longest: 13 by the Panthers.
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* – New England failed to score in the second quarter last Sunday for just the second time since the start of last season (25 games).
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* – The Patriots were hit with 113 yards in penalties last week, their first game with over 100 in 47 games.
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* – Only seven percent of Colts’ rushing plays have gained 10 yards or more this season, the lowest percentage in the league.
The also ranked last in 2008, but last season were “just” 25th (10 percent).
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* – On defense, opponents are averaging 5.0 yards per carry on the ground, the highest in the NFL:
5.00 – Colts
4.97 – Redskins
4.85 – Buccaneers
Indy’s rushing defense is third worst on first downs:
5.84 – Redskins
5.59 – Raiders
5.50 – Colts
Pittsburgh has played the best rushing defense on first down this year, alowing a 2.3 yard average.
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* – Speaking of first downs, the Patriots, Colts, and Ravens are the only teams that have not thrown a pick on first down this season. The Pats’ defense has picked off six passes on first down, third most in the league. The Colts have picked off five such passes, ranked fourth.
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* – It’s now been 10 games since the Patriots outgained an opponent by 100 yards or more. That’s the longest such streak by the Patriots since they had a 16-gamer in 2002.
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* – Both teams have been rather pedestrian this year against blitzes: The Pats rank 11th with a +1.50 rating (7.1 yards/pass play, two touchdowns, three interceptions) while the Colts are 17th at +1.13 (only 5.2 yards/pass play, but five touchdowns and one interception).
Both teams have been VERY GOOD when there is no blitz: The Colts are third at +2.50 while New England ranks fourth with a +2.48 rating. The Patriots’ 15 touchdown passes when there is no blitz are the most in the league.
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* – New England racked up a season high 64 passing yards to running backs last Sunday. The four first downs on those throws was also a season high. Here are the teams with the highest average yards per RB reception this season:
11.2 – Raiders
10.4 – Patriots
10.0 – Chiefs
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* – Indianapolis did not complete a pass to a running back last week. It was the second time in their last four games with zero receptions. Prior to that, a Colts’ running back had caught a pass in their previous 61 straight games, averaging 4.5 receptions in that stretch. The Patriots have at least one reception by a running back in their last 104 games.
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* – Betcha didn’t know this: When these two teams throw to their backs, their average yards at the point of the catch rank first and second in the NFL (Patriots 1.74 yards; Colts 1.66 yards).
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* – The Colts and Pats have struggled recently at keeping opposing running backs from catching the ball. Here are the highest completion percentages allowed on throws to running backs (last four weeks):
92% – Colts (23-for-25)
90% – Patriots (34-for-38)
90% – Rams (17-for-19)
FYI: The Bears have allowed just 54 percent completions to RB’s in that span.
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* – Last one about passing to running backs: The Patriots have ALLOWED a pass play of 25 or more yards to an opposing running back in each of their last three games. There have only been two longer streaks in the NFL since 2003: Oakland (5) in 2003 and Green Bay (4) in 2006. New England allowed only two such plays during each of the last two seasons.
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* – The Colts have 25 completions to their wideouts that have been caught behind the line of scrimmage, tied for the league lead with the Rams. Their completion percentage (86.2 percent) ranks second on those throws (Giants, 86.7 percent).
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* – The Colts (3.2 average) and Patriots (3.1) rank third and fourth in the league in rushing average in the red zone.
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* – When the Patriots have chosen to run the ball on third down, they’ve been quite successful at converting the first down, doing so 64 percent of the time:
74% – Texans
64% – Patriots
64% – Buccaneers
When Colts OPPONENTS have run it on third down, they’ve converted 63 percent of the time (third worst):
65% – Vikings
63% – Buccaneers
63% – Colts
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* – The Pats have been quite successful with their third down passing game as well, despite just 56 percent completions (19th). They’ve averaged 6.5 yards/pass play (eighth) with eight touchdowns and two interceptions for a rating of +3.02 (ranked third). The league’s best third down passing team has been the Saints with a rating of +3.46 (6.7 yds/pass play, 10 touchdowns, 2 interceptions).
The Colts’ third down passing rating is +1.59 (ranked 11th).
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* – The Pats’ third down pass DEFENSE has been brutal, as 50 percent of opponent pass attempts on third down have resulted in a first down (45-of-90), the highest percentage allowed in the league. Contrast that to the Colts’ defense, which has allowed only conversions on just 34 percent of opponent third down tries (ranked fifth).
New England’s defense has allowed 7.1 yards/pass play on third downs this season, but it’s been noticeably better over the last four games (4.6).
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* – Once their opponent is inside the 40-yard-line, the Patriots’ pass defense has allowed 6.9 yards/pass play, worst in the NFL. Their pass defense rating (+5.42) is second worst (Dallas, +5.48). Keep in mind that a positive rating is good for the offense and bad for the defense.
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* – When they’ve been pinned inside their own 20-yard-line, the Colts have completed 83 percent of their passes (25-of-30), the highest in the league, while the Patriots have ALLOWED 75 percent completions on those throws, second highest/worst in the NFL.
The Pats’ offense has completed just 45 percent (10-of-22) when inside their own 20, the worst mark in the league.
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* – Indianapolis defense has allowed an average of just 8.0 yards per catch on opponent passes to tight ends this season and each catch has come an average of 3.7 yards downfield. Both are NFL lows. However, you couldn’t tell it from last week’s stats: The Colts allowed 11 completions to Cincinnati’s tight ends last Sunday, their most allowed in 44 games. What’s more, they racked up 74 YAC (yards after the catch), the most against Indy in their last 80 games and the first time they’ve allowed 30 or more in over a year.
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Give me your thoughts on this stuff! Leave a comment here, email me at GMarbry@weei.com, or tweet your thoughts to @nuggetpalooza. Enjoy the ballgame.
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