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J.J. Watt available for Patriots at 17? It may be more likely than you think 03.08.11 at 4:56 pm ET
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Every year there’s at least one first-round star who falls much further than anyone could have expected in the draft. Somehow, a guy with a top 10 grade went 21st overall in 2004. His name? Vince Wilfork. Last year, it was Bryan Bulaga, who went 23rd to the Packers after Mike Mayock (count the times he’s wrong — it doesn’t happen often) said he wasn’t getting out of the top 10.

Could J.J. Watt fall to the Patriots at No. 17? (AP)

Our latest mock draft has the Patriots taking Wisconsin defensive end J.J. Watt, a 6-foot-5 3/8, 290-pounder who had seven sacks as a junior and excelled at the combine. Mayock has called him the best five-technique prospect he’s ever seen. How, then, could Watt be available with the draft’s 17th pick? It’s a question that’s popped up, and one that’s very fair to ask. Here’s the attempt at answering it.

This draft class is known for its defensive stars. From cornerbacks Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara to top linemen in Da’Quan Bowers, Marcell Dareus and Nick Fairley, the best talent in this draft is on defense.

As far as five-technique prospects go, Dareus and Cal’s Cameron Jordan are in the conversation for the first one to come off the board. Both figure to be top 10 picks.

The Panthers, Broncos, Bills and Bengals — the teams with the first four picks in this draft — all have 4-3 defenses, with Denver and Buffalo making the switch this offseason. If they opt for defensive linemen with their picks, they won’t be going for 3-4 guys, and Watt’s size and skill set translates to playing end in the 3-4. The Cardinals (No. 5), 49ers (No. 7), Cowboys (No. 9) and Redskins (No. 10) are the only teams picking in the top 10 that run a 3-4.

Of those four teams, only two of them have a perceived need at defensive end, as both San Francisco and Dallas could address the position. That makes two teams in the top 10 potentially going after the draft’s star five-technique ends.

For Patriots fans hoping their team can secure Watt, that’s very good news. Assuming that both Dareus and Jordan are taken in the top 10 picks, something that isn’t a certainty, Watt’s potential slide to 17 is actually quite conceivable. Here’s a look at the teams picking before the Patriots after the top 10 picks.

11. Texans One of two teams that runs a 3-4 between No. 10 and 17. Will they go defensive line in the first round for the fourth time since 2005? If they did, they would probably be looking for a nose tackle above a defensive end.

12. Vikings The defense is a 4-3, and they already have Jared Allen at one end. Everson Griffen should get more time in his second year.

13. Lions Another 4-3. They threw money at Kyle Vanden Bosch last season, committing to a four-man front anchored by a boy named Suh.

14. Rams: Starts with a four, ends in a three. Chris Long is St. Louis’ stud defensive end, and Watt wouldn’t make sense as the other.

15. Dolphins: Finally, another 3-4. The Dolphins drafted Jared Odrick in the first round last year, and Randy Starks is plenty capable of being a starting end, which he did after Odrick went down last year.

16. Jaguars: What’s one more 4-3 defense for good measure? Jacksonville already has Aaron Kampman, and though they may be looking for another defensive end, it would be one in the 4-3 mold. We have them taking Purdue’s Ryan Kerrigan in our latest mock draft.

That brings us to the Patriots, and the conclusion that the star five-technique stands an excellent chance of remaining on the board at No. 17 if he doesn’t go in the first 10 picks.

Of course, there are other obstacles the Pats could encounter if Watt is the player they seek (and who has ever been sure of a Pats’ target before the draft?). Teams with 3-4 defenses could trade up to leap-frog the Pats, and the Herald’s Ian Rapoport makes an excellent point in noting that he is a client of Tom Condon, an agent whose players the Patriots have avoided since the ugly Benjamin Watson negotiations.

Those things aside, maybe it isn’t so crazy that the Patriots could end up with Watt. It would be seen by draftniks as a huge steal, and it would be seen by opposing offenses as a big problem. A line of Watt, Wilfork and a healthy Ty Warren sure would be tough to deal with.

Read More: 2011 NFL Draft, j.j. watt, NFL scouting combine, Vince Wilfork Print  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
  • JD

    Isnt Houston running a 3-4 now with Wade Phillips as their D-Coordinator?

  • http://Enteryourwebsite... chris

    They will not take Watt, available or no. His agent is Tom Condon, who was the agent for Ben Watson years back, and contract disputes got ugly, and the whole affair became a mess that led to him being sent to the browns. The patriots have never delt with him since (even if it means passing on a position they need) and will not go through that again. There are other good ends available at 28 and so they will take a linebacker (hopefully smith) or a tackle at 17. (Or trade down)

  • Pats time

    Depends on the Contract which might limit rookies.

  • Matt

    Just wanna say I love the Johnny Cash reference you threw in there during the analysis of the lions

  • Mike

    More likely then we think? Most mock drafts have the Patriots taking Watt at 17. That generally means the Patriots WON’T take him.

  • Robert

    Seems to me the hype about this kid is alot greater than it should be. First he played in a 4-3 and translates better as a DE in a 4-3 rather than a 3-4. Most important… kid is dumb as a rock.. is inexpirenced and still hasnt fully learned his posistion.. and the most important thing Belichick looks for is football IQ.. Mayo is one of the most recent examples. Personally I see Belichick drafting a DT.. dont forget Seymour was originally a DT before moving outside. Muhammad Wilkerson seems like he would be a steal late in the 1st or early in the 2nd.. has the size 6’5 300+ lbs so wouldnt have to add weight.. and is versatile can play anywhere on the line.. good at stopping the run and pass rushing which isnt important.. dont forget people the Pats run a 3-4 not a 4-3 so pass rushing for the DE isnt important they have the extra LB for a reason! Oh and since he projects as a late 1st early 2nd it allows the Pats to possible target Ingram since almost everyone seems to fancy seeing Ingram in a Pats uniform (Dolphins need a QB more than a stud RB.. or they just need to increase the amount of touches since wasnt long ago R.Williams had a 1,000 yd season)

  • Nate

    Chris you don’t know what your talking about. The Patriots had a contract dispute with Tom Condon and couldn’t get a deal done so Ben Watson fired him and hired a new agent and signed a contract. But after the 2009 season they wanted Ben Watson back but had Vince Wilfork who they needed to resign. So they let Ben Watson go into fee agency after his contract expired. And as everyone knows they drafted the young but very good tight ends (Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez). So now the Patriots should be set at the tight end for at least ten years. And if the Patriots want J.J. Watt they will make a move to get him. But at this rate J.J. Watt will easily fall to the Patriots and if they do draft him I know J.J. will want to be a Patriot. They play in a 3-4 defense which he thrives in and theirs a open spot for him after the Richard Seymour trade. Not to mention the offense could easily be the number one offense next year. And if they do draft him and J.J. really wants to be a Patriot like Ben Watson and their is a contract dispute he could fire Tom Condon. As of the 28th pick they need to use that on a interior offensive linemen so they get rid of Logan Mankins and free up some cap space. The only team that would have a chance of drafting Mike Pouncey is the Atlanta Falcons but they need another receiver if they would like to repeat. And then their is the 1st pick of the second round. Only two teams would even think about drafting a running back in the first round (Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots). But for some reason to me Cam Newton seems like Tim Tebow but bigger,not as smart and only one year of being very good after several transfers. So I think the Dolphins will get Cam Newton after he slides to them and Mark Ingram Jr. will stay out of the first round.So the 1st pick for the Patriots in the second round will be used on him. The second pick in the second round for the Patriots will be used on an outside linebacker and Jeremy Beal from Oklahoma is a player that is very good and will be at this pick easily. The two third round picks need to be used on a cornerback and a offensive tackle. The Patriots recently worked out cornerback Johnny Patrick and were impressed. Demarcus Love is an impressive tackle the Patriots could get to replace the aging free agent Matt Light. After that that the Patriots get more defensive players and a receiver and a couple more offensive linemen so here is my final mock draft for the Patriots. 1st Round 17th overall : J.J. Watt Defensive End Wisconsin 1st Round 28th overall : Mike Pouncey Offensive Guard Florida 2nd Round 33rd overall : Mark Ingram Jr. Running Back Alabama 2nd Round 60th overall : Jeremy Beal Outside Linebacker Oklahoma 3rd Round 74th overall : Johnny Patrick Cornerback Loiseville 3rd Round 92nd overall : Demarcus Love Offensive Guard Arkansas If the draft falls this way the Patriots would be very good for years to come. I also think the Patriots are hoping that the NFL and NFLPA get the CBA done. If its finished the Patriots should sign Logan Mankins to a long term deal and try and trade him for a late first round pick or a couple of early second round picks. Or it would be great to trade Mankins for a 2012 first and second round pick.

  • Nate

    I also think they should try and get a free agent running back to go along with Benjarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead and Mark Ingram Jr. A couple of options are DeAngelo Williams, Willis McGahee and Clinton Portis. To me all could redeem their careers with the Patriots. Everyone remembers the Clinton Portis that was so good with Broncos and he could be that again with the patriots with a solid offensive line. Deangelo Williams will stay with the Panthers and Willis McGahee could be used as a fullback/halfback because Sammy Morris is 34 and a free agent. And with McGahee at fullback the Patriots could also sign Clinton Portis.I will now tell you the roles for each back. Willis McGahee is a fullback and a short yardage you could line up as fullback and give the ball to. Benjarvus Green-Ellis is a goal line running back only because of his nose for the goal line. Danny Woodhead is a 3rd down running back that you use in a 3rd and medium or 3rd and long situation. Mark Ingram Jr. is a all three down back and franchise running back that you give around 215 carries and throw to out of the backfield. And Clinton Portis will receive around 100 carries and should be a great compliment. With these four backs they will leave the rest of the NFL speechless and have nothing to do to stop this monster backfield.

  • Nate

    I can also see Ricky Williams or Ronnie Brown in the same role Clinton Portis would have with the Patriots.

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