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The Rule of 26-27-60, and trying to apply it to this year’s quarterback class 04.21.11 at 10:32 pm ET
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Using the Rule of 26-27-60, Christian Ponder will succeed as an NFL quarterback. (AP)

In the wake of this story we did earlier this week about the Patriots kicking the tires on some collegiate quarterbacks, we were reminded about the Rule of 26-27-60, which remains one of the most dependable formulas for judging how successful a college quarterback will do in the NFL.

As far as we know, it was first presented by Football Outsiders in the Pro Football Prospectus 2006, and John Lopez of SI.com expanded upon the idea in a 2010 story, explaining that, “If an NFL prospect scores at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, starts at least 27 games in his college career and completes at least 60 percent of his passes, there’s a good chance he will succeed at the NFL level.”

To bolster his point, Lopez has the following quarterbacks since 1998 passing the 26-27-60 test: Drew Brees, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kevin Kolb, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Kyle Orton, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub and Matthew Stafford. In the same span, here’s his list of those who have fallen short in at least one of the three categories: David Carr, Tim Couch, Daunte Culpepper, Joey Harrington, Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, Akili Smith and Vince Young.

Over the last 15 or so years, there are five notable exceptions to the rule, including Tom Brady, who passed the Wonderlic and completion percentage, but his 25 college starts leave him just shy of a passing grade. Then, there’s two-time Super Bowl champion quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who had two of the three, falling short when he posted a 25 on the Wonderlic. In addition, both Donovan McNabb and Brett Favre fell short in the Wonderlic, but have gone on to successful careers in the NFL. And Matt Leinart played over 30 games, scored a 35 on his Wonderlic, completed over 63 percent of his passes … and has been nothing short of a miserable failure in the NFL.

When it comes to this year’s group, while much of it depends on where a quarterback will be drafted, the Rule of 26-27-60 tells us that this could be a very good draft class for signal callers, with five of the top nine quarterback prospects making the grade: Alabama’s Greg McElroy (43-27-66 percent), Florida State’s Christian Ponder (35-35-62 percent), Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert (42-29-61 percent), Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi (30-32-60 percent, although we’re rounding up from 59.8 on his completion percentage) and TCU’s Andy Dalton (29-50-61 percent) all pass the test.

There are several candidates who just miss the cut in one of the categories: Ryan Mallett (26-29-58 percent) has the requisite Wonderlic score and college starts, but falls short when it comes to completion percentage. Nevada’s Colin Kapernick (40-51-58 percent) just misses when it comes to accuracy as well. Meanwhile, both Cam Newton (21-14-66 percent) and Jake Locker (20-39-54) only reach one of the three areas.

In the end, there are several other aspects of a quarterback’s game that must be evaluated before the draft, and the Rule of 26-27-60 isn’t the ultimate statistic in determining his success or failure in the NFL. But in a world where the success rate of picking quarterbacks is surprisingly slim, it’s a stat worth keeping in mind when signal callers start coming off the board next week.

Read More: 2011 NFL Draft, Print  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
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  • Fab4ever

    It’s amazing this team can win like they do with this pitiful power play production…just goes to show how good their penalty killing is….and to that Buffalo troll who posted all sorts of trash after the Garden game, I won’t say “I told you the B’s would be back in Buffalo and win”….Thornton loses one fight and the B’s are trash? Scoreboard please….

  • Titletown1

    Man, could this team please blow someone out? I’d love to sit back and relax and watch them score 5 or 6 goals. But I guess that ain’t gonna happen until they fix the powerplay.

  • Sicko

     You really think that idiot will be back? Another fantastic defensive effort with their backup goalie no less. best revenge beating Buffalo on the road.

  • Fab4ever

    Yep and yep. Good Lord what a pain in the arse Brad Marchand is…we’d hate him if he was someplace else…

  • Bruinman86

    Great win, and from what I saw (half the game) the B’s kept their emotions in check.

  • Chris Nilan

    Miller didn’t even really play that good. The Bruins probably missed the net tnight about 6 times more than they got shots on net. The Bruins could have easily won this game by 9 goals.

    But a win’s a win! 

  • bench warmer

    The bruins power play has been weak since Savard’s concussion, years ago.

  • Chrisindanvers

    Great game and I agree, it is the best way to get even with the Sabres. While the Bruins did not dominate the game, they came close in many ways. They played physical to show the Sabres that they wouldn’t be pushed around without the game getting out of control. They attacked the net. They played solid defense. And Khudobin was strong once again.

    8-1-1…What a great start…and I thought it would take come time after the lockout. I was totally wrong on that.

  • Uncle Buck

    Marchand played one of his best games in a long time, he was absolutely flying.  Had his legs the whole night.  They shut down Vanek and controlled the play.  Great team win.  Another 2 points on the road.  Pretty disciplined team.

  • Anonymous

    Great win. You could tell from the start the Bruins had revenge on their mind from the last game but were gonna go about extracting it by crushing the Sabres on the scoreboard. The only reason this game was even close on the scoreboard was Ryan Miller. Honestly, Buffalo was never in danger of winning that game. When you trade talented players like Derek Roy for crap like Steve Ott you end up losing more games. 

    Kaleta has always been a pain, but with more physical players backing him up it will only get worse. I guarantee he will continue to take runs at players. 

    I thought Lucic brought his physical game last night and by the end of the game players were avoiding contact with him. 

    I still like the new line combos of Krecji Lucic Seguin and Horton Bergeron Marchand. More balanced lines having a scorer, playmaker and power forward on each. Seems to have improved puck movement and space in the offensive zone. 

    The PP still blows. Now they are back to “everyone get in the zone and stand still while the guy with the puck tries to make an impossible pass”. Solution, one stop putting forwards with no slap shot on the point. Use your two top lines exclusively and keep them together on the PP, simplify things. Or trade for Jerome Iginla. Feature him on the PP, and play get the puck to Iginla and let him score for us.

  • glenn88

    Who would you give up for Jerome Ignila?  That is a blockbuster deal and Calgary isn’t going to trade him for Spooner and Caron.   Calgary is going to have to show their fans NHL ready prospects or a full take of the top players in a farm system.   Don’t see the Bruins going this route.
    The Bruins probably do want a left handed shot who is an upgrade on the 3rd line  for Bourque. Probably more in the market for a player like Chimera or maybe a more expensive option like Dubinsky.  Both play for teams possibly looking to unload and cost a reasonable price.  Both fit the Bruin’s system.   

  • ILoveHockey

    remember the cap is going down next year- have to make sure whoever you sign is a rental and you can’t give away your cheap- controlled prospects or you will be screwed going forward

  • Anonymous

    Absolutely not, Bruins as it stands right now have over 8 million in cap room. If they add Savard to the LTIR they will have over 12 million, check capgeek.com

    Iginla is 36 and is at 7 million this year and a UFA after this season. He is the classic rental player. Bruins could acquire him and either resign him for less money after the season or use him as a rental to win the cup this year. Iginla is the perfect fit to add to the Bruins roster. He brings everything the forwards group needs to be the deepest most talented group in the NHL. Iginla has not won the cup so the drive to win one before the end is there. He is considered a great leader, has scored more goals than anyone in the NHL since 2000, fights, hits, plays a solid all around game and is a goal scorer especially on the PP. Unlike the trade for Kaberle, a trade for Iginla would work out and we might even keep him after the season, as next year’s NHL cap is supposedly increasing. Iginla is the guy I would target to bolster this roster, especially with the cap room the Bruins have. 

    In terms of compensation, a package similar to the Kaberle deal a few years back would be expected. This deal was a 1st and second round pick. I would expect Calgary would take a 1st, and a 2nd round pick plus a prospect or two such as Ryan Spooner and Jordan Caron or Chris Bourque. It is a lot to give up, however the Bruins are already built with a core of young talent for the long term and should give serious consideration into acquiring Iginla for a package mainly consisting of draft picks to win now.

  • glenn88

    I believe the cap is going down next year not up. Doesn’t matter as Ignalia is a one year rental.
    Couple things
    -  Ignalia is going to cost more than Kaberle, because I would expect a wide market for him.  I don’t see Calgary trading their legend without getting NHL ready prospects.  But maybe his production keeps falling off and the price drops?
    - Ignalia is a right handed shot and they are looking for a left.  He doesn’t fit anywhere that is worth $7 million unless a current player goes down.  The trade would be to replace Bourque on the 3rd line.
    -  Bourque is not a prospect.  He is a 27 year old career AHL player being given a shot on his dad’s team.   He is worthless on the trade market the same way he was in the off season.

    Agree the Bruins will make a trade and that is the reason for the TT contract shift.  But I see a lower price 3rd line left handed player who can also play on the PP.  I do like Dubinsky       

  • Anonymous

    We’re all due “maintenance” every once in a while

  • Anonymous

    This is a fun team to watch

  • Tim R

    Perhaps a testosterone injection??  

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/ZVFM2HRNC5CTO2OUXD4XTX65O4 Dennis

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  • cesar maniago

    trade him for that guy in toronto

  • WHITEY

    I agree that Calgary probably won’t dump Iginla, as he has been there for so long.  The Bruins also would probably not give the package that Calgary would require.  I think a cheaper option, as far as trade value, would be Mike Cammalleri.  The guy is a proven scorer, and would cost a million less against the cap than Iginla.  The Bruins would also retain him through the 2014 season.  I also believe that the Bruins have no interest in trading Spooner for a 2 month rental.  I think Caron and a 2nd round pick gets that deal done.  Cammalleri would be a nice fit on the Bruins, as his style of play fits alongside guys like Peverley, Seguin, and Marchand, who rely on their speed.  The top 3 lines would look like this.  Krecji, Lucic, Seguin   Bergy, Marchand, Horton   Peverley,Cammalleri, Campbell/Paille. 

  • Schwank

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  • Anonymous

    Well, as no one knows for sure this is all conjecture. However, I will agree to disagree with you on Iginla. First off, I have wanted the Bruins to make a move for Iginla for three seasons now. So to hear it is finally a real possibility is exciting. 

    Secondly, if Calgary was going to keep Iginla long term, why have they not resigned him for the past three years when he was making 7 million against the cap with less production each year as he got older? If they were going to keep him, Calgary would have resigned him and lowered the cap hit by adding years. I believe Calgary will trade Iginla before the deadline so they don’t lose him on the free agent market and get nothing in return. 

    Furthermore, Calgary is in no position to win the cup, this season or next. They missed the playoffs last year and will certainly miss them this year. They have 1, thats right 1 prospects listed in NHL’s top 50 Prospects. They need to add more players to their talent pool and rebuild through the draft the way the Bruins did.  

    Bruins prospects (all movable in my opinion)
    1. Malcolm Subban, G (ranked 43rd on NHL prospects list, highest ranked Bruin other than 2. Hamilton). Having Tuuka and Khudobin makes Subban movable. 
    3. Alex Khokhlachev, F (top 100 NHL prospect)
    4. Ryan Spooner, F (NHL ready prospect)
    5. Jordan Caron (NHL ready prospect)
    6. Matt Bartkowski (NHL ready prospect)

    There are very few teams that could even add Iginla’s 7 million to their cap. The Bruins are one of those. The Bruins have the draft picks and the prospects to get the deal done and they should do it. 

    There is no way Calgary would turn down an offer of 1st and 2nd round pick this season plus a package of say Subban, Spooner, Bartkowski. Calgary is in no position to turn down 5 potential NHL players for one 36 year old who is a free agent, I don’t care who that player is. 

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