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For the Patriots, no defense in the big picture 10.02.11 at 10:09 pm ET
By

Brandon Spikes and the Patriots defense shouldn't be celebrating quite yet. (AP)

Two questions before we get started:

If you swapped the two quarterbacks on Sunday don’t you think the final score might have been Raiders 31, Patriots 19?

And how many points would this Patriots offense put up against this Patriots defense?

Look, Sunday’s 31-19 win over the Raiders was a nice bounce-back from the disaster in Buffalo. Going across the country to play is never easy, the Black Hole, the Raiders are actually pretty good, all that stuff is true.

So yeah, if I had offered you Patriots 31, Raiders 19 five minutes before kickoff you probably would’ve signed for it. Same goes for a 3-1 start to the season, right?

But this isn’t the 49ers we are talking about, or the Bills or the Redskins. The Patriots are a Super Bowl or Bust team, one of maybe three or four in the NFL this season (Packers, Saints, Jets). We might keep one eye on looking for signs of progress in regular-season games, but the other eye is always locked in on The Big Picture.

And now, exactly one quarter through the regular season, we know this about the 2011 Patriots:

Nothing.

Well, nothing new, anyway. We all thought this offense was going to again be among the two or three best in the NFL. Maybe not at the level we saw at the end of the 2010 regular season, but still high cotton. And that is exactly what they have been. If Tom Brady — on pace for 6,212 yards and 52 touchdown passes — isn’t the First-Quarter MVP he’s on the very very shortlist. Wes Welker leads the NFL in catches and receiving yards (he’s on pace for 160 catches — I know, I know, it’s early in the season but this is obviously the Welker we knew before the ACL injury in Houston). The running game? 4.2 yards per carry in 2010, 4.4 yards per carry this season (with Stevan Ridley looming as a possible successor to Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez as Rookie Game-Changer). Sure, Ochocinco hasn’t yet (and might not) panned out, but Gronkowski looks like an All-Pro, Deion Branch has contributed and Hernandez was off to a solid start before his injury.

Putting it another way, here’s the Patriots offense in the last eight games of 2010:

403.1 yards, 37.3 points.

And in the first four games of 2011?

507.5 yards per game, 34.7 points.

In reality, this offense has actually played at a higher level. In the Super Bowl or Bust Department, they pass the first quarter with the ol’ flying colors.

But there are, as Dan Fogelberg once sang, two sides of a football coin (and if he didn’t he should have).

And with that we arrive at the defense, who remain a lot closer to Bust than Super Bowl.

Same question with the offense — what’s changed? What have you seen over these four games that tells you this group is any better than the 2010 defense?

Chad Henne — 28th in passer rating last season — threw for 416 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 against the Patriots and has thrown for 452 yards in nine quarters since (Henne was knocked out in the second quarter on Sunday). The pass defense has allowed 416, 390, 369 and 344 yards against Henne, Philip Rivers, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jason Campbell (Rivers is a top-10 QB but the Patriots have been chewed up by four guys that don’t exactly represent the Mt. Rushmore of quarterbacks).

And Sunday was just more of the same. Campbell threw a couple of dopey picks — more on those later — but still completed 25-of-39 passes for the 344 yards. The worst third-down defense in the NFL was lousy again Sunday (8-of-13) and Campbell was sacked zero times. The Raiders had 504 yards of offense, the second time since 2004 that they have topped the 500-yard total (or as many times as the Patriots offense has done so this season — I’m telling you, this offense would put up 50 points against this defense).

Have they continued to be opportunistic? Yup — we saw it against the Chargers and sure saw it again on Sunday. Pat Chung and Vince Wilfork made plays to stop what surely would have been more bleeding. But, after last season, is anyone buying into the idea that this defense bends but doesn’t break, or just knows when to step up?

That works against Jason Campbell. But (again, all we care about is Big Picture) raise your hand if you think Aaron Rodgers would make the throw Campbell made in the end zone, or if Drew Brees would be picked off by Wilfork.

And now it is looking like one of the five worst defenses in the NFL is going to be without its best player for at least six weeks (early reports have Jerod Mayo with a sprained MCL). Time for someone — anyone — to step up. Brandon Spikes was awful on Sunday, completly lose in pass coverage. Devin McCourty has allowed five touchdown passes this season and looks nothing like the guy that many (me included) thought was going to make the jump to elite No. 1 cornerback. The safeties have been brutal, the pass rush doesn’t exist (I still think they should have made a trade for Albert Haynesworth, or maybe signed Shaun Ellis) and there isn’t a single player in the group that is playing at a higher level than he did last year (and same goes for the HC of the NEP — these are Bill Belichick’s players and his schemes. If he’s going to be called a genius and have NFL Films make documentaries about him maybe he should be able to figure out a way to slow down Jason Campbell or Chad Henne).

It’s early in the season and there’s still time for things to change.

But a quarter of the way in, it  looks an awful lot like more of the same.

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  • Mike Eschmann

    Great story…I have to say, I found myself saying the same thing this afternoon. More of the same, the defense is just not play ing that good and they continue to fail to get to the QB. I wish just once, the Pats would consider trading some of those many draft picks for a top notch pass rusher. I do not know who is out there, but by now there has to be a team that is struggling more than they expected during the first 4 games that would want to make a deal?

    Mike

  • HoleinOne

    When you give up #1 draft choices for lower picks, this is what you get. Defensive line in Super Bowl days almost all #1 picks.

  • dharpell

    I just don’t get it with this defense. Is Bill Belichick so enamored with the offense he overlooks the defense? Not likely for a coach of his quality. I think the Pats get too frugal in the draft. With all the picks the Pats accumulate they should be able to amass the talent they need. Yet, more than half of the players they draft get released and they end up with undrafted players. The “bend and don’t break” mentality worked 10 years ago, but not today. time to tell these guys you have too be aggressive and not give up 3rd and long all day!

  • Mike

    Maybe Belichick is not the “Defensive God” we all thought he was. Seems this is a yearly occurence and that a real GOOD coach could do something about it.
    Perhaps to him, good defense is a good offense

  • Erik Powell

    It’s almost as if the Pats are trying to play a counter-attack style (to borrow the soccer term), letting the opposition come at them and then looking for opportunities to pounce and attack. In soccer this means letting the other team possess the ball quite a bit and defending deep; in football, I guess it means letting the Raiders put up 500 yards but causing key turnovers. Not sure it’s going to work over the long haul. It’s certainly gut-wrenching to watch.

  • Mark Loomis

    Wow, a Dan Fogelberg reference.. I am impressed.
    I do think the bend but not break defense has bent to far.

  • Kern

    What you’re seeing now isn’t the true potential of the Defense. It’s as if you guys are unaware of the roster moves and the no real off-season this year. This year more than ever, you’ll have to be patient. Game eight, nine, ten patient. Give the safeties some time for the game to slow down for then. Give the corners some time to get healthier on the field. See if Haynesworth can collapse the pocket lined up with Wilfork. Allow Carter to develop a rapport with the other guys on the line. Wait till blitz schemes are implemented and a pass rush is manufactured. Anyways, all that defense needs to do is make a few stops and that includes holding the other team to field goals. Patriots win by one…it’s still a win. Last I check, same rule applied to the Super Bowl, as well.

  • ptabo

    Did the Jets hold Oakland to 19 points?

  • ericplu

    Are any of you WHINERS watching what is happening in the NFL this year. There are ZERO dominating Defenses in this league at this point of the season…ZERO. Not the Jets, Not the Steelers, Not even the defending Champs. With the rules that are so totally in favor of the Offense (especially Passing)combined with the lack of an offseason program, I think its obvious that Defenses in the NFL have been put way behind the 8-ball. The Pats are trying to implement a new defensive scheme and doing so without the benefit of 3 months of off-season workouts. Even teams with strong, established defensive units are struggling in this 1st quarter of the season. If we were 1-3 and not 3-1 right know i’d be panicking, but the Pats are facing the same issues that the vast majority of Teams are facing…at least we have a top tier Offense to help out the situation !!!!

  • http://weei.com k.mannix

    next week sanchez will look like joe montana
    against this defense…same old story no pass rush
    no defense..it all starts there..

  • Ben

    Complaining that Spikes got beat in coverage is like complaining that Wilfork didn’t score on his interception. The guy is in there to stop the run – he’s gonna give up the occasional reception.

    I’m as frustrated by the defense as anyone but passing yards are the most overblown stat in the nfl. They basically held oakland to 13 pts. not bad.

  • Chuck

    Good article but… would be nice to also include a comaprison of defences across the league. I bet you will see that all are way up. The league has so hand-cuffed the defence, especially the DBs that they can not breath on a reciever without getting flagged. I also think the lack of sacks is mis-leading….Belichik might be instructing them to get into the passing lanes, clog up the middle and not take runs at the QB, for fear of the roughing the passer call….

  • Bubba

    BB is never going to tell you what he thinks about the defense, and that’s his prerogative, but it’s frustrating for a fan. Does he have stats that show it’s more effective to be an opportunistic defense, as opposed to a shutdown defense? Is he frustrated with the yards given up, or does it fit right in with what he knows about having a winning defense? Is he waiting for this group to gel, or is he disappointed with the progress the defense has made?

    Who knows? He isn’t ever gonna tell you.

    To those above who say that all teams are behind because of the lockout, ok, but why are we about dead last in so many stats? And if you think those stats are overblown and our defense is good enough, ask yourself, how many games do you think the defense would win for us this year if Brady went down for the year? I’ll go out on a limb and say zero.

  • Mike

    Defense always has been and always will be a problem—until they get a good defensive coach in the system. Belichick is proving that he sure isn’t one.

  • scott

    i’ll name you three teams, all-time whose defense would win it all without their starting quarterback. ’85 bears, ’86 giants and 2000 ravens. maybe those steeler teams of the ’70s but i was too young to really pay attention.

    My thought is if the offense plays like it is capable of in the playoff the defense just needs to be adequate.

    PS Hey Minihane, the object is score or prevent points not yards. the patriot’s offense is less efficient so far this year than those last 8 games you pointed out.

  • Bubba

    For what it’s worth, the Pats are 17-4 in their last 21 games. That’s not bad, and seems to imply that BB knows something about winning games. It’s just the last three playoff games that stick in your craw. The question is does the system work and they just had bad days at the wrong time? Or is it that what works in the regular season no longer works in the playoffs? And with 4 SBs and three SB victories as the Pats HC, I am guessing that BB knows how to win in the postseason, too.

  • Cas G

    So Kirk
    you mean to tell me Belicheck liked Sergio Brown and Barrett more then Sanders and Meriweather??I still don’t get it.

  • Kern

    @Cas G… Belichick is looking at the overall player when making his mind up about who’s on the squad. Meriweather wasn’t as coachable; Sanders lacked speed and athleticism. Barrett’s advavantage is his size, speed and versatility (special teams play and back-up linebacker). Sergio Brown is an instinctive yet coachable player. They’ll do for now, they should be greatly improved a year from now. Every decision has to be long and short-term.

  • Jeff

    Minihane, you do not know what you are talking about. McCourty has not given up anywhere close to 5 touchdowns this year. He has given up a few plays or more than a few plays, but he has also made a few plays. Count the number of quarters the Pats have played with Chung, Dowling, McCourty, and Bodden on the field at thesame time. When they get all these players back, and get Mayo back, the Defense will be fine. Aso, the Pats have not blitzed a lot. You will see a game plan soon enough, after their cornerbacks are heathy, where they blitz and get darn good pressure on the quarteback.

  • joekoool102

    You think Bill Belichick should have taken Clay Matthews instead of trading down for buncha CB’s and S’s stiffs. Maybe if we had a pass rush, or a playmaking LB or DE,you know someone who gets sacks and strips the ball and stuff, maybe our secondary looks better. Defense starts in the front seven. I predict BB will take 3 CB’s 3 safeties and 2 TE in next year draft.

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