| Nuggetpalooza: A statistical breakdown of the Patriots, Broncos, and Tim Tebow | 01.13.12 at 11:05 am ET |

It’s playoff time! For the third straight season, the Patriots host a playoff game. They’ve lost each of the last two. Tomorrow, Tim Tebow and the Broncos come to Foxboro brimming with confidence after their stunning overtime victory over the Steelers last Sunday. Get ready for all the action with a bunch of numbers that perhaps you haven’t seen elsewhere (and even a few bonus nuggets on the other games this weekend) :
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
* – Saturday will be the fourth time in Patriots history that they will face off against the league’s top rushing team in a postseason game:
2001 – Won 24-17 at Pittsburgh, allowing only 58 rushing yards
1997 – Lost 7-6 at Pittsburgh, allowing 145 rushing yards
1985 – Lost badly… well, really badly to the Bears in the Super Bowl, allowing 167 rushing yards and four touchdowns
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
* – Denver went three-and-out a league high 62 times this season, breaking their club record of 50, set in 1999 and tied last season (although they’ve only tracked this since 1995). Last Sunday against Pittsburgh, Denver went three-and-out on their first two possessions, then never again over their final 11 (not counting two one-play possessions at the end of each half). The Broncos went three-and-out at least three times in seven of their final eight regular season games.
Note this: Denver has gone three-and-out multiple times in the first quarter in five of their last six games (including last Sunday’s win). The Patriots’ offense did that exactly once all season, but it came in their last game, two weeks ago against the Bills.
Note this too: Considering all of the hand wringing that’s gone on regarding the Patriots’ slow starts this season, can you guess during which quarter the Patriots offense went three-and-out most often this season? How about which quarter New England’s defense forced the most three-and-outs? Chew on that and I’ll give you the answer later.
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
* – You may have heard that prior to Denver’s game winning, 80-yard, touchdown pass in overtime last week, the Broncos had run the ball on 23 of their 24 first down plays in that game. In addition, in their previous 16 quarters of football, Denver had exactly two pass plays of 25 yards or more on first down. For the regular season, Denver led the league with 1,359 rushing yards on first down and ranked third by averaging 4.98 yards per carry on first down. New England’s defense allowed a first down rushing average of 4.81 yards, fourth WORST in the league, and the worst by a Pats’ defense since at least 1991.
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
* – Denver also rushed for 671 yards and a 5.20 average in the fourth quarter, both NFL highs. Their average yards per carry was a club record for the fourth quarter. The Patriots allowed 4.58 yards per carry in the fourth quarter this season, the second worst mark in the league.
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
* – One aspect of the running game in which the Patriots have outperformed the Broncos is in the red zone. New England rushed for 284 red zone yards (2nd), 17 touchdowns (2nd), and a 2.99 average per carry (8th). Denver managed just 98 red zone rushing yards (28th), six touchdowns (26th), and a 2.45 average (16th).
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
* – Tim Tebow passed for 194 yards to the left last Sunday, 80 yards over the middle (all on one play), and 42 yards to the right. It was the most yards to the left by the Broncos all season, surpassing their high of 164 and their average of 82. They had not surpassed 80 yards over the middle in 31 games, averaging 26 such passing yards in that span.
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
* – The Broncos became the third team in NFL history to win four overtime games in a season (including postseason). The others were the 2003 Panthers and this season’s Cardinals.
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
* – As a group, Broncos’ pass receivers managed only 303 yards after contact this season, an average of 1.53 yards per reception, both league lows. Compare that to New England’s receivers, who rang up 1,016 yards after contact, an average of 2.53 yards per reception, both league highs.
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
* – The Patriots finished the season by “winning” the turnover battle in each of their last eight games, putting up a +17 margin in that span. It ties the longest such streak by a Patriots team since 1990, which was set during the final eight games of LAST SEASON, when they put up a +23. These are the only two such streaks of more than five games by the Patriots in the last 20 years. The longest such streak in the NFL since ’90 is 12 games, set by the 1997-98 Giants.
NFL Note: The 2006-07 Patriots had a 17 game streak in which they “won” or “tied” the turnover battle each week. That was the league record until Week 17 of this season, when the Packers ran their streak to 18 games in a row without losing a turnover battle.
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
* – Here are the first quarter rushing yards allowed by the Patriots over their last six games of the season: 32, 35, 167, 55, 22, 17. Yes, the 167 is the total rushing yardage that Denver put up in the opening quarter against New England. It’s the most rushing yardage by any team in any first quarter since they began tracking the stat in 1991 and more than double the previous high against the Patriots (80 by the Bills in 1998).
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
* – Denver had better turn up their pass rush on Saturday or it’s probably curtains for them. During the regular season, they ranked 10th in sack percentage (7.1%) but when they failed to get a sack, their pass defense was rough, allowing a passing rating (my rating, explanation at bottom) of +0.59, ranked 27th in the league. Part of this is because they forced “hurries” on just 4.0% of opponent pass plays, the second lowest percentage in the league.
Only the New England Patriots (3.9%) were worse.
In addition, Denver picked off only nine passes during the regular season. Only the Colts and Vikings, with eight each had fewer. They did pick the Steelers once last Sunday after finishing the regular season without an interception in any of their last four games. They had zero interceptions in 11 of their 16 games this season. The Patriots have failed to pick off an opponents’ pass in 11 of their last 48 games.
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
* – The Broncos were very good at preventing third down conversions this season, ranking sixth (33.5%). But let’s take that one step further. Denver’s defense had trouble stopping 3rd-and-1′s, allowing conversions on 18-of-25 tries (72%, ranked 21st). But in all other third down situations (two yards or more), they allowed just 28.5% conversions (55-of-193), the third best percentage in the league:
26.6% – Cardinals
27.7% – Dolphins
28.5% – Broncos
29.0% – Ravens
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
* – Only 14.9% of points scored against the Patriots this season came from outside the 20-yard-line, the lowest percentage in the league:
14.9% – Patriots
24.1% – Bears
24.2% – Chargers
24.4% – Giants
However, 38.9% of Denver’s points scored came from outside the Red Zone, the second highest percentage in the NFL:
42.1% – Browns
38.9% – Broncos
37.5% – Raiders
37.2% – Chargers
Note this: New England had 72 pass completions that gained 20 yards or more, exactly twice as many as the Broncos. However, only 10 of those 72 went for touchdowns, while nine of Denver’s 36 such pass plays ended up in the end zone.
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
* – This should be interesting: While the Pats’ defense allowed a league worst average of 2.78 points (19 touchdowns and seven field goals on 55 possessions) when opponents started inside their own 20 this season, the Broncos’ offense averaged only 0.59 points on those drives (three touchdowns and two field goals on 46 such drives), second worst in the league. Only the Rams (0.34) were worse.
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
* – Denver’s offense led the league with nine delay of game penalties this season. It broke their club record of six, set last season. Their 15 such penalties over the past two seasons equals the number of delay penalties that they had over the previous SEVEN seasons combined. On the bright side, they took only seven penalties for false starts, not only was that the fewest in the league this season, but it was the fewest since they began tracking the stat in 1995:
7 – Broncos, 2011
8 – Bears, 2001
9 – Jets, 2003
9 – Seahawks, 2001
9 – Falcons, 2010
The Patriots took 19 false start penalties this season, as did their opponents.
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
* – By allowing only one catch for 19 yards in the season finale, Devin McCourty not only didn’t set the record for yards allowed by a defensive back in a season (that’s safe with Walt Harris of the 1999 Bears, at 1,194 yards), but he wound up second in yards allowed this season. McCourty ended the year at 1,115 yards allowed, five fewer than the Packers’ Tramon Williams (1,120).
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
* – New England and Denver were two of only six teams that never committed a turnover (fumble or interception) on their first drive of any game this season.
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
* – Denver committed 30 fumbles this season, losing 17 of them, both league highs. The Patriots lost only five fumbles this season, tied for the fewest in the league. It also tied their club record for fewest fumbles lost in a season, set last year.
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Answer to three-and-outs trivia questions: The Patriots offense went three-and-out more times in the fourth quarter than any other this season (9). That’s a bit of a trick question because New England went conservative while sitting on a lead in lots of fourth quarters this year. On defense, they forced 11 three-and-outs in the first quarter this season, more than in any other period (they forced 10 each in the second and third, and just five in the fourth).
Explanation of “my” passing rating: It’s based on a rating devised a few years ago by the New York Times, with some differences. Basically, the rating is net yards per pass play (that way, sacks are accounted for), plus 30 times the touchdown percentage, minus 50 times the interception percentage, minus the average net yards per pass play for the league as a whole. So if a team’s net yards per pass play is exactly league average with zero touchdowns or interceptions, their rating will be 0.00. Note that the league average changes depending on the stat split. In other words, the league average net yards per pass play is a little over six yards overall (6.08) but it’s just 3.08 yards in the red zone.
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Finally, here are a few things I stumbled across on the other playoff games this weekend:
* – The Saints fumbled only six times all season, the fewest by any team since 1970. However, the 49ers led the league by forcing 31 fumbles and recovering 15. It was the most fumbles forced by a 49ers team since 1991.
* – The 2011 Packers are the first team since at least 1960 to play in the postseason after finishing last in the league in total yards allowed. The 2011 Patriots are the first team since 1999 to play a postseason game after finishing with the SECOND most yards allowed. Here’s the thing, though. Since 1960, those teams that were second worst in yards allowed have played a home playoff game six times… and are 6-0:
1999 – Redskins 27 Lions 13
1993 – Bills 30 Chiefs 13
1993 – Bills 29 Raiders 23
1991 – Bills 10 Broncos 7
1991 – Bills 37 Chiefs 14
1986 – Jets 35 Chiefs 15
1983 – Seahawks 31 Broncos 7
* – The 49ers converted only 29.4% of their third down tries this season, ranked 31st in the league and the second lowest percentage ever (since ’91) by a playoff team. The only squad to make the playoffs with a lower conversion percentage? The 2005 Chicago Bears, who were successful on just 28.8% of their third down opportunities.
* – Green Bay won NINE games this season despite being outgained by their opponent, the most such wins in a season since at least 1990:
9 – Packers, 2011
8 – Bears, 2001
7 – Done four times, last by the 2010 Patriots
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Have a great weekend! Want to discuss this stuff? Have a suggestion? Leave a comment here or better yet, hit me up on twitter at @nuggetpalooza!

Christopher Price: It Is What It Is >> Matt Light talks #Patriots on @NFLNETWORK http://t.co/KPvTYH06 via @WEEI 1 hours ago
Christopher Price: @jcmccaffrey No worries. You are my lifeline to the league right now--keep it up! (And I'll try and get you a copy of the book.....) 4 hours ago
Christopher Price: @jcmccaffrey And keep up the great work. When I'm down on the Cape, I pick up the CCT all the time at my folks' house. Also read you online. 4 hours ago
Christopher Price: @jcmccaffrey Oops. Never mind. Just saw he was a senior. That's my bad. 5 hours ago
Christopher Price: @jcmccaffrey Jen...any word if Tony Bucciferro of Mich. State is coming back this yr? Was with Brewster in 2011 & he was a family favorite. 5 hours ago
Christopher Price: Source: Brady was part of early-arriving crowd at Tuesday's OTA session #weei #NFL #Patriots http://t.co/ZqZ1zysF 7 hours ago
Christopher Price: @mellyhocking I worked with him the last 2 yrs. on WEEI Sunday football show & we got to talking about doing a book. Came together last yr. 13 hours ago
Christopher Price: Kraft on Welker: 'We're happy he's back' #weei #NFL #Patriots http://t.co/H9bsHIfH 13 hours ago
Christopher Price: Thx for the kind words & RTs for my book plug. Out 1st wk of Oct. Meanwhile, expect lots of gratuitous self-promotion between now & then. 12:12 AM May 22, 2012

2012 PATRIOTS DRAFT PICKS

2012 NFL DRAFT

- Tuesday Patriots Notes: Robert Kraft, Zoltan Mesko, Tom Brady
- Patriots Rookie Projections: Chandler Jones
- Junior Seau, Ted Johnson And Player Safety In The NFL
- 2012 Breakout Watch: Patrick Chung
- New England Patriots Links 5/22/12 - McCourty Shouldering Two Positions
- How Replaceable Is Wes Welker?
- Report: Patriots Agree To Terms With Nate Ebner






















