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Here’s why the Patriots will win on Sunday 01.17.12 at 6:53 am ET
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Will Rob Gronkowski be the difference on Sunday?

Will Rob Gronkowski be the difference on Sunday? (AP)

You know what we’ve got on Sunday?

Two Super Bowl or bust teams.

When the season began, neither the Patriots or Ravens would have been satisfied with a spirited, hard-fought loss in the AFC championship as the conclusion to the season. Nope, the expectations were Lombardi Trophy or Lost Season.

How many other teams, realistically, thought that way in September? The Packers, obviously. The Saints, sure. The Steelers. One more, and it’s almost now charming in its delusion: The Jets.

That’s it. Every other team would have signed for 12-4 and a playoff win. That includes the two remaining NFC teams.

This will be the only Super Bowl or Bust matchup of the entire postseason. Doesn’t mean the winner will win the next game, of course, but it is going to be a particularly brutal defeat on Sunday for the Patriots or Ravens, much more so than for a 49ers team that won six games in 2010 and is way past house money stage, or for a Giants team that missed the postseason last year, won nine games this year and was 7-7 just a month ago. If the Giants lose 23-14 to the 49ers on Sunday I suspect, with some time to gain a little perspective, they’ll look at the season (with that win in Green Bay as the unquestioned highlight) as a whole as a success.

I’m picking the Patriots to win this game, but it’s about as close to a coin flip as it can get. A Baltimore win would be nothing close to a surprise, that defense plus Ray Rice is plenty enough to beat New England. Doesn’t take much to make a case for the Ravens on Sunday.

But three factors stand out when choosing New England, and it’s the first one I believe will matter most …

Brady vs. Flacco

No quarterback in the history of the NFL has won as many regular-season games in his first four seasons as Joe Flacco (44 – but if you’ll allow a quick caveat: Brady won 48 in his first four seasons as a starter but is disqualified here because he played in one game in his actual rookie season of 2000). Flacco has a career TD/INT ratio of 80-46, which even in the new NFL world of juiced-up passer ratings is impressive. And on Sunday, Flacco won his fifth career postseason game. So you’d think this is a guy that would reside firmly at the elite table of current quarterbacks, below Brady, Rodgers and Brees but right there with Roethlsiberger and Eli Manning (who is two wins away from pretty much locking up a spot in Canton, hard as that may be to believe).

But no one ever puts Flacco in that group, his national temperature is tepid at best. Why? Well, he had his worst season in 2011 (most INTs, TD’s were down, yards per attempt and completion percentage were career lows) and looked very shaky at times against the Texans on Sunday. Probably you remember Baltimore coming to Foxboro and destroying the Patriots in January 2010. Also you might remember this: Flacco stunk in that game, finished 4-for-10 for 34 yards and an INT (10.0 passer rating). In his postseason career he has completed 53.1 percent of his passes with seven INT and six TDs (Tony Romo - who routinely gets massacred by the press for not being a “winner” with just a single playoff win in five games – has completed 59.3 percent of his playoff passes with four TDs and just two INTs). Flacco is a perfectly serviceable NFL starter, perhaps a little more than that. But if he had been drafted by, say, Seattle instead of Baltimore it’s fair to wonder what Flacco would be. Having Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed, Ray Rice and Haloti Ngata as teammates can cover up some of the quarterbacking acne.

When the Patriots lost to the Giants in Week 9 they were 5-3 on the season and Tom Brady already had 10 interceptions. Since then the Patriots are 9-0 and Brady has thrown 25 TDs (as many as Flacco has thrown in any season of his career) against three picks. Yup, this Ravens defense is significantly better than any Brady has faced during that stretch (tops in the NFL in pass defense) and the heart of that group dominated him in that playoff game two years ago, but he enters Sunday playing at least as well as he has at any time of his career. Huge head-to-head edge for the Patriots at the most important position.

Understanding The Need For Balance

The three losses:

Buffalo, 45 passes, 26 rushes

Steelers: 35 passes, 12 rushes

Giants: 49 passes, 24 rushes

(And these were not blowout games, obviously, the kind that would force your quarterback to throw and throw some more. The losses were by three, six and four points.)

The nine-game winning streak:

Jets, 26 passes, 28 rushes
Chiefs, 27 passes, 35 rushes
Eagles, 34 passes, 36 rushes
Colts, 38 passes, 24 rushes
Redskins, 37 passes, 20 rushes
Broncos, 34 passes, 36 rushes
Dolphins, 46 passes, 31 rushes
Bills, 35 passes, 30 rushes
Broncos, 34 passes, 30 rushes

OK, the blowout wins (Broncos twice, Eagles) mean more running. And the Redskins/Colts games weren’t quite as balanced as I may have hoped when I began examining this. But keep this in mind – the Patriots passed 19, 25 and 23 more times than they ran in their three losses, and that’s three of the four largest splits of the season. Against this Ravens defense – one of the three or four best in the league by any standard – they have to try and establish the run. If they drop Brady back 45, 50 times he’s a) going to get smacked around and b) very likely turn the ball over a couple of times (that kind of predictably won’t work, opposing teams threw for just 11 TDs against the Ravens). A potential X-factor is Stevan Ridley, who had just four carries last week but with his ability to get outside might be the best bet to have that 75, 80-yard kind of game. And while the Ravens were sixth vs. the run this season, they have allowed over 100 yards rushing in each of the last four games, including 145 to the Chargers in the Sunday night loss a month ago and 131 last week to Houston and Arian Foster. If the pass/rush spilt is close to 50-50 or even 60-40 in favor of passing it a terrific sign for the Patriots.

And The Biggest Difference From 33-14 is …

Welker, Hernandez and Gronkowski. Welker had blown his knee out the week before the playoff loss to Baltimore, Gronkowski had just missed almost his entire final collegiate season with the most fortunate back injury in New England history (payback for Larry Bird, I guess) and Hernandez had finished his last season at Florida.

Julian Edelman was about the only offensive player that showed up that afternoon against the Ravens, and he’s also probably the only skill player for the Patriots that will get any snaps on Sunday. Randy Moss, Sammy Morris, Sam Aiken, Ben Watson, Chris Baker, Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk accounted for all the rushes and receptions. The NFL’s top pass catcher and the most productive tight end duo in league history is the upgrade of all upgrades. If we are drafting skill players from the Ravens and Patriots I might take Ray Rice first – though I’d be very tempted to pick Gronkowkski – but there’s no question the three Patriots are the next choices. This offense is absolutely better right now than the 2007 group, at least better built for the postseason and teams like the Ravens – Welker is at as good as he was that year, Gronkowski/Hernandez as a combo is better than Moss (who caught just seven passes that postseason) and the rest is close to a wash, right? In this NFL I’ll take the great offense over the great but aging defense.

Read More: AFC Championship, Bill Belichick, Patriots, Ravens Print  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
  • Grayesun

    you’re forgetting the ESPN 11th commandment…the Patriots have the most wretchedly horrid defense since the dawn of time…this group collectively stinks like a hot bowl of week old Rex Ryan odor eaters stew…nothing any football fan has ever seen comes close to the pathetic inability of a team of supposed athletes to execute and perform…their gross failures at all levels will go down in sports annals as the most ill-conceived attempt at professional sport…now, lets talk about that total fraud…   

  • Bagoon

    holding the opposition to 10 points in a playoff game would make one question your view point- yes, it was the broncos and tebow, but that didn’t stop the ‘vaunted’ steeler D from losing the game– the Pats D was ranked 13th or 14th in terms of points allowed, certainly not pretty, but they got the job done, sounds like you have been reading too many media reports and not paying enough attention to the actual product on the field

  • Dtpugliese

    if the Ravens go through with playing man to man coverage, they won’t have someone to match up well with Gronkowski.  And if they double team him that means there’s still Welker and Hernandez to look out for and they may be covered as well.  Then you have to watch out for the deep threat.  Could Ochocinco be a huge factor in this game?

  • Grayesun

    why let the facts or what our eyes see on the field get in the way, when we’ve got ESPN Patriot-hating  guru’s like Ditka, Jackson, Carter and Hodge telling it like it is - c’mon man   

  • Bagoon

    ha- good one gray!

  • Bagoon

    ocho got on the field for 1 snap last week, i don’t think brady or bb trust him at all, just don’t see him being a factor

  • Psousa1

    The biggest issue is not Ray Rice running the ball it will be (at least I think)Ray Rice catching the ball out of the backfield.  He has had some big plays this year as a receiver out of the RB spot.  He is going to be isolated on a LB while coming out of the backfield.  Hopefully they give him the Marshall Faulk/Ladanian Tomlinson  treatment and just smoke him every chance they get and do not let him get into his pattern from his RB spot.    

  • Psousa1

    I’m surprised ditka/hodge and carter (I intentionally spell their names in lower case)  hasn’t drawn a link yet between the Pat defense and Al-Queida.

  • Grayesun

    It’s all on the Patriots “O” line, their biggest test of the year…if they give Brady time…Super Bowl time…then same deal against the Giants, protect Brady + win

  • JB

    2012: The Year of Redemption (in the eyes of fans)

    [x] Sweep Jets and watch them fall apart (’11)

    [x] Beat Broncos for Jake Plummer game (’05-’06)

    [  ] Beat Raven in AFC Championship (’09-’10)

    [  ] Beat Giants in Superbowl with Randy Moss flipping coin (’07)

    And where’s the game played?

    [  ] … At Lucas Oil Stadium, with Peyton Manning in attendance.

    PATS 2012 CHAMPS.  Plan the parade Mr. Mayor!

  • Grayesun

    don’t know about all that, but Brady does appear to be obsessed and on a mission right now…as I’ve never seen before…he and the Pats will need to maintain this high intensity to win next 2 games…

  • Reddog

    Of course you if concentrate on points allowed (what determines wins and losses) instead of yards allowed (what you and the media like to dwell on), their defense is middle of the road and not the picture you just painted. Couple that with an incredible offense and you have a team that goes 13-3 during the regular season and is in the AFC championship game. Take care Pat hater.

  • Reddog

    Well said Bagoon.

  • Grayesun

    please direct your venom at ESPN (Ditka, Jackson, Carter + Hodge)…the real Patriot haters…been a Pats fan over 50 years now…just exposing the ESPN rank bias against the Pats with a bit of sarcasm…c’mon man

  • Cdhuntington

    No to mention 23 ints and a +17 turnover margin.

  • DAPATS

    Pay Back is a Mutha Fer………………….GO PATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    The year of REDEMPTION.

    How’s my arse taste.

    GO PATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Tom is on a mission…..Gisele said no more BJs till you win another SB.

  • Patsfan41968

    Here’s a copy of what I posted to another good story last night on WEEI.com as to why the Pats are in a much better position this week than they were 2 years ago when they suffered their only loss ever to the Ravens;

    The Pats are very different than they were 2 years ago in the Playoffs and not just Welker, Gronk and Aaron being on the field this time. 2 years ago, Brady was coming off his knee injury and is a lot more agile in the pocket than he was in that game when he was a sitting duck for the Ravens pass rush. 2 years ago, Branch was still playing for Seattle and he simply has a knack for making the big play in the biggest games. And as someone who has lived in Maryland these last 3 years, I can certainly attest to the fact that both Ray Lewis and Ed Reed were much better players back then as age and injuries have slowed them both down. Speaking of slowing down, look at Flacco’s numbers over the past three years; he actually regresses as he gets better targets to throw to (Boldin) and Cam is one of the worst and most predictable OC’s, tries to “pound” out a yard several times yesterday at the goalline and at the end with an undersized back. Just be prepared for the Ravens’ thuggery and post-whistle hitting when they’re playing from behind as they’ll make Von Miller look like a Boy Scout! But, I’ve come up with some great stats to further prove my point. Everyone knows the Ravens have a good D (# 4 in NFL against the Pass and # 3 in Scoring), but those numbers are deceiving! In their 16 games, they only played 4 against top tier passing teams; San Diego (6), Pittsburg (10-twice) and Tennessee (12) with their remaning 12 games against the bottom half; Cincy (20-twice), Jets (21), Seattle (22), Cleveland (24-twice), Indy (27), SF (29), St Louis (30) and Jax (32). Let’s break down their # 3 scoring defense; 266 total points (16.6 pts/gm), Home; 119 (14.9) and Away; 147 (18.4). Good stats for sure! But how did they do against the # 6, # 10 and # 12 passing teams on the road? Hold on to your seats; 34, 20 and 26 points respectively, for a total of 80 points and a 26.7 average. So, against the only “elite” passing team they played this year (San Diego) they got gashed for 34 points on 17 for 23 and 270 yards with no turnovers or sacks by a .500 team in mid December who also threw in 145 rushing yards for good measure. And, it’s the only game in Ravens’ history that an opponent has scored on their first 5 possessions and the Chargers scored on all 6 without ever having to punt! Surprise, surprise!

  • Patsfan41968

    Here’s a copy of what I posted to another good story last night on WEEI.com as to why the Pats are in a much better position this week than they were 2 years ago when they suffered their only loss ever to the Ravens;

    The Pats are very different than they were 2 years ago in the Playoffs and not just Welker, Gronk and Aaron being on the field this time. 2 years ago, Brady was coming off his knee injury and is a lot more agile in the pocket than he was in that game when he was a sitting duck for the Ravens pass rush. 2 years ago, Branch was still playing for Seattle and he simply has a knack for making the big play in the biggest games. And as someone who has lived in Maryland these last 3 years, I can certainly attest to the fact that both Ray Lewis and Ed Reed were much better players back then as age and injuries have slowed them both down. Speaking of slowing down, look at Flacco’s numbers over the past three years; he actually regresses as he gets better targets to throw to (Boldin) and Cam is one of the worst and most predictable OC’s, tries to “pound” out a yard several times yesterday at the goalline and at the end with an undersized back. Just be prepared for the Ravens’ thuggery and post-whistle hitting when they’re playing from behind as they’ll make Von Miller look like a Boy Scout! But, I’ve come up with some great stats to further prove my point. Everyone knows the Ravens have a good D (# 4 in NFL against the Pass and # 3 in Scoring), but those numbers are deceiving! In their 16 games, they only played 4 against top tier passing teams; San Diego (6), Pittsburg (10-twice) and Tennessee (12) with their remaning 12 games against the bottom half; Cincy (20-twice), Jets (21), Seattle (22), Cleveland (24-twice), Indy (27), SF (29), St Louis (30) and Jax (32). Let’s break down their # 3 scoring defense; 266 total points (16.6 pts/gm), Home; 119 (14.9) and Away; 147 (18.4). Good stats for sure! But how did they do against the # 6, # 10 and # 12 passing teams on the road? Hold on to your seats; 34, 20 and 26 points respectively, for a total of 80 points and a 26.7 average. So, against the only “elite” passing team they played this year (San Diego) they got gashed for 34 points on 17 for 23 and 270 yards with no turnovers or sacks by a .500 team in mid December who also threw in 145 rushing yards for good measure. And, it’s the only game in Ravens’ history that an opponent has scored on their first 5 possessions and the Chargers scored on all 6 without ever having to punt! Surprise, surprise!

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_BAS7PZLGZCGNQHCQ5UYHKWLO5E Kurt

    JB, your comment is the best!

  • Patsfan41968

    After further review, I realized that I had not included two games Arizona (17) at Home and Houston (18) at Home in my comments, but rest assured, they were included in the aforementioned statistics and analysis.

  • Sports guy

    I guess having Chung/Spikes/Mayo and Ainsworth(less gone) has made a huge difference to this defense. The D has always been good against the run, and if the only offense that Flacid can produce is having Rice run then I like the Patriots chances in this game.  

  • McNab

    Considering your dramatic one-man war against those  ESPN clowns (agreed), I still don’t understand why you leave that halfwit shannon sharpe off the list(?). He your brother/

  • McNab

    Considering your dramatic one-man war against those  ESPN clowns (agreed), I still don’t understand why you leave that halfwit shannon sharpe off the list(?). He your brother/

  • Guest

    I don’t know about Ditka, but TJ and Keyshawn definitely hate the Pats. As for Hoge, he doesn’t even try to disguise his fury, hatred, and loathing of New England. He still hasn’t recovered from Branch’s “Where your towels at?” in the AFC title game a few years back.

  • Patrick.

    Grayesun, your sarcasm is too subtle for some.. haha

    I’m a little nervous about this game.  The Ravenettes have the ability to execute at a very high level on defense and Flake-O sometimes manages to impersonate an effective QB.  Counterpoint to that is the resurgence of the Patriots D with the return of Chung and Spikes.  This will be a GOOD GAME to watch…..  Pats win.

  • CAPatsFan

    I would expect BB is probably leveraging that early home exit/loss last season, during practices this week. Great timing for the defense to get healthy (Chung & Spikes, etc.), too. I like that Brady is obsessed about getting back to the SB.  Is this win guaranteed? No. But I believe the slight edge goes to the Pats. I also believe 7-pts. is a bit much too. Try -3.

  • shack

    glad somebody brought that up sharp has been spewing his hatred for the pats for years. wish someone had called him when the pats were killing the broncoes last week !

  • Allan from Millis.

    add the Cowboys, Giants and Colts to the list of Superbowl win or nothing. just sayin’.

  • RobDX

    You know that Grayesuns answer was sarcasm?

  • Chad johnson

    Its funny you mention all these stats about the Ravens, what about the Pats? Did they play one team with a winning record this year? The Giants and the Steeler’s and they lost. Second of all they played nobody, and still had one of the worst defense’s in football. How the Ravens do the last time in foxboro? It was a beatdown. The Ravens have played 7 teams that were in the playoffs this year, there record against those teams 7-0. The patriots beat denver, probably the worst team ever to make the playoffs. All it take is one hit on Brady and this game is over. Before everybody makes plans for a super bowl they have to beat one good team first. The Ravens. You know what really deceiving the Pats aren’t that good 

  • Bhdyer20

    The last time in Foxboro as in the playoffs/  Do you know that their are only 3 defensive starters on this Patriots team from that year?  Did you know that the Patriots didn’t have Welker, Gronkowski, or Hernandez that season?  To be saying that a game played two seasons ago somehow is indicative of what will happen on Sunday is plain foolish.  It has absolutely nothing to do with this game.  Once again and I know you won’t respond because you don’t get it and you have no response, the Seahawks got in the playoffs last season with a losing record probably worse than the Broncos don’t you think?  Also again yipee 7 and 0 against playoff teams did you know they were 4-4 on the road?  You keep mouthing off like the team can’t be beaten because of their record against playoff teams but you conveniently skip the horrible losses to teams like Jacksonville and Seattle on the road, not to mention a game down the stretch against the Chargers that could have helped them keep the number one seed but they couldn’t get the job done…against San Diego!  Going to be a tough game but most Pats fans would certainly fess up to the fact that the Ravens are a good team but for some reason you can face up to the fact that the Patriots are a good team as well what’s with that?

  • Chad johnson

    Buffalo Bills beat the Pats too!!! what’s your point

  • Bhdyer20

    THAT is my point!  You can’t do the this team beat that team, record against playoff teams all that is a bunch of garbage at this moment.  It is about who plays the best Sunday, one team has a very good defense, the other team has a very good offense, they are both good teams (note I said BOTH) we will see but to say the Patriots aren’t that good yet they are in the AFC Championship game is either you just trying to goad people or you not knowing a thing about football.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_COMKUP2MMCBJFXXAL7RSWYBPDI X Y

    Am I late for the Patriots circle jerk?

  • your moma

    yes but you can be pivit man

  • Grayesun

    Nope…just wish you brought a more impressive piece of equipment…

  • Grayesun

    and some Pats fans will never forget the rants by Sharp in Foxboro about calling for the National Guard cause the Patriots needed help…Sharp and Cowher have softened over the years as Patriot loathers as has Marino…but Carter, Jackson, Ditka and Hodge wear it right on their sleeves…not like I care…just saying 

  • Rguay

    Try judging points scored by opposition and the turnover differential before you compare the Pats D to anything associated to Rex Ryan.

  • Grayesun

    was just hitting on ESPN for now, we know Bradshaw, Cowher, Sharp and Marino have always been Patriot bashers…but ESPN…well they’re obsessed…  

  • VWF75

    Do you want to be at the game this Sunday? Well here’s your chance to be Vince Wilfork’s Guest at the AFC Championship game! Winner and a guest will receive 2 tickets to the AFC Championship game and ALL PRO Celebrity Tailgate Party Passes to a tailgate party hosted by WEEI’s Glenn Ordway, Fred Smerlas and Steve DeOssie. Raffle tickets are only $2.00, what do you have to lose?http://secure.celebritiesforcharity.org/raffle/vince-wilforks-afc-championship-game-raffle

  • McNab

    If I don’t miss my guess, you’re no spring chicken, like me. Which means that I’m actually LOVIN the hatred, after decades of just being pitied, as Sox and Pats fans.

  • McNab

    If I don’t miss my guess, you’re no spring chicken, like me. Which means that I’m actually LOVIN the hatred, after decades of just being pitied, as Sox and Pats fans.

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