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Is Tom Brady still Mr. Clutch? Stats show a different story 02.02.12 at 10:09 pm ET
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Tom Brady will look to reverse a downward trend in big games when he leads the Patriots against the Giants in Sunday's Super Bowl. (AP)

In sports, there are revered and fundamental truths, statements and realities that are unquestioned and rarely debated.

Principally among them, especially in New England, is this: Tom Brady will always find a way to perform and help put his team in a position to win with the game on the line. In short, Brady is a clutch player and it’s that simple.

It is a reputation that Brady has deservedly built over the course of his distinguished career, with late-game heroics in big-game, high-pressure situations cementing his legacy as a winner.

But statistics from the 2011 season paint an entirely different picture of the revered quarterback. If anything, they show a decline in Brady’s late-game statistical performance from years when the Patriots captured the Super Bowl.

In the 2011 season in games decided by 0-7 points, Brady has completed 63.7 percent of his passes for 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions, all of which add up to a 90.8 passer rating, a mark that places him below Aaron Rodgers (119.2), Tony Romo (98.1), Matthew Stafford (98.0), Drew Brees (97.5) and Eli Manning (92.9).

Brady’s passer rating in games decided by 0-7 points is also down from three of the four years in which the Patriots advanced to the Super Bowl.

The problem hasn’t even just been when Brady’s production has dipped. It’s also been when it’s spiked, as he has performed significantly better in games which the Patriots have won by 15 or more.

Compared to his 90.8 rating in closely-contested games, Brady has a passer rating of 119.0 in games that the Patriots won by more than two touchdowns.

While it’s easy to assume that a quarterback performs better when his team is firmly in control of the game, Brady has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 1.6-to-1 in those 0-7 point games. As for that number in games decided by 15 or more? 13-1.

That contrast in performance is in fact a contrast to the rest of Brady’s career, at least in the Patriots’ most successful seasons.

In the 2004 season, the last time the Patriots won a Super Bowl, Brady had a 99.6 rating in games decided by a possession and a 83.9 rating in games when his team won by more than two touchdowns. The year prior to that, Brady had a 91.3 rating in those close games and an 83.9 rating in comfortable wins.

Essentially, the man known almost universally for his heroics in close games has been a far better quarterback when the game is beyond reach for the opposing team this season.

This isn’t a problem limited to this campaign. It began to show in the 2007 season. In the Patriots’ 19 games that season, in which they went 18-1, Brady had a 131.5 rating in his team’s numerous blowouts that season, but just a 94.7 rating in close games. Patriots fans need not be reminded of his subpar performance in the Super Bowl that year.

Of course, his isn’t to say that Brady hasn’t had his moments late in games this season. He led a game-winning drive to beat the Cowboys on Oct. 16. He responded from a costly interception to take the Patriots on a game-tying drive against the Bills in a Week 3 loss. And against the Giants, he engineered a 64-yard drive that gave the Patriots a 20-17 lead with 1:36 left in the game.

But too often this season, against some of the NFL’s best teams, Brady hasn’t answered the call.

In the Patriots’ 18 games this season against 14 different opponents, only three came against teams with winning records (the Steelers, Giants and Ravens). In those games, Brady had an even touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 77.7 passer rating. Against teams with losing records, those numbers ballooned to a 3.7-to-1 ratio and a 111.5 rating.

There is a clear drop-off in Brady’s productivity and effectiveness when facing off against the NFL’s best competition, a fact that isn’t in line with much of Brady’s career.

It’s even something that he recognized to a point after the win over the Ravens in the AFC championship.

“Well, I sucked pretty bad today, but our defense saved us,” Brady said after throwing for 239 yards, two interceptions and no touchdown passes. “I’m going to try to go out and do a better job in a couple of weeks, but I’m proud of this team, my teammates.”

While it’s hard to excuse Brady for his statistical shortcomings against those teams the question has to be asked — is this a problem that is limited to him? Largely, among other top quarterbacks, yes it is.

Brady’s 77.7 rating against winning teams puts him well behind the likes of Rodgers (111.2), Brees (111.2), Manning (96.6) and Ben Roethlisberger (91.1), as well as the likes of Rex Grossman (92.0) and Tavaris Jackson (79.3) in similar situations.

Brady’s struggles were certainly felt by the Patriots, as the team went 1-2 in those games, and were a Lee Evans dropped pass away from being 0-3.

In the playoffs, the biggest games of the season, Brady has also had his share of shortcomings beginning with the 2008 AFC championship against the Chargers.

In New England’s last six playoff games, Brady has thrown 13 touchdowns with 10 interceptions and posted just an 82.1 passer rating. Not so coincidentally, the Patriots went just 3-3 in those games, a far cry from his 14-2 record in his first 16 playoff appearances.

Brady’s recent playoff track record has caused some to question whether he still has the same big-game ability he used to routinely exhibit.

“Let’s be real: It’s fair to wonder about Brady’s, well, clutch-ness,” wrote ESPN New York columnist Rich Cimini this week in an article titled “Tom Brady not as great as advertised.” “He’s experienced some serious hiccups in recent postseasons, committing huge turnovers in critical moments.”

Not much can diminish what Brady has accomplished in the biggest of moments in the past.

He’s still got a better playoff win percentage than Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw, John Elway and Troy Aikman. And he’s still the man that stepped up and led the Patriots on game-winning drives in two Super Bowls.

Statistically speaking, it just hasn’t shown of late.

Read More: aaron rodgers, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Joe Montana Print  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
  • Frank

    Your using small sample sizes (three games from 2011) to prove a point here that isn’t very well made. His passer rating in close games remained pretty consistent in close games throughout his career (90-95 range). Putting up huge numbers and high passer ratings in blowout wins should not be a knock on Brady, since his incredible performances are a major factor in those games being a blowout. It seems like you’re trying to spin these numbers to paint a picture akin to A-Rod’s reputation in Texas, putting up huge numbers when it doesn’t impact the outcome of the game.

    Additionally, isolating his performance against elite competition is a self-fulfilling view…in general, most of his numbers will look worse. Have you tried analyzing his performance relative to the quality of the defenses he faced (perhaps by using DVOA)?

    I think you’re failing to appreciate just how great Brady was to start his postseason career. By starting out perfect, of course there would be a downward trend.

  • Mike

    All this really shows is Tom Brady had to preform great in order for the team to dominate. Games are close when he isn’t at his best or the game is close because the defense allows too many points.

    Also the teams that he has played this year with a winning record are great at getting after the quarterback.

    I’m also not worried about his 13/10 td/int ratio in his last 6 playoff games isn’t a scary stat. Peyton Manning went 4-0 and won his lone superbowl with a 3/7 ratio in that post-season.

    Anyway you look at it even if he loses this game he is still considered one of the greatest qb’s of all time. I think if he wins he should be considered the greatest of all time.

  • RobDX

    Agreed. CLutch isn’t a real stat anyways and it has actually been put down as a serious marker for stats. Also, you have to be a great player to dig out of 21pt deficits.  

  • Hesher

    Craig Meyers and his columns made of pure D-Baggery…..Make sure you make a column about how clutch Eli is this ONE year.

  • ne711

    Seriously??

  • Chimpy

    This article blows and he cites a NY writer as evidence.  That’s like writing something anti-Obama and relying on the never biased FOX News as a source. 

    Also want to point out – Those awesome QBs who are so clutch and soooo much better than TB#12 aren’t playing in their 5th SB this weekend….

  • Anonymous

    They have to write something… It is true that his post-season QB ratings have declined since before 2007. One thing that will be telling in this game is when Brady is hurried and might throw the ball a little wide in either direction or low, can the receivers make the adjustments and make the catch. Welker has dropped more this year than ever. We need him and all the receivers to be clutch. They have to give TB help.

  • Tsmith7777

    So (just to name a few things on Brady’s resume)  a 16-5 post season record, 3 SB victories, 5 SB appearences, 5 conference championships, 2nd of all time passing yards in a season, ties for most post season game TDs isn’t clutch enough for you?? LOL

  • Aheg

    I have to agree with the first post. I think you are misinterpreting the data you cite, or deliberately bending it to fit a predetermined premise.

    You might be able to make an argument that the Patriots margin of victory has become more and more dependent on the quality of Brady’s performances. But, what you seem to be saying is that the team’s performance is independent of Brady– except that it’s his fault when the Pats lose or do not win convincingly. 

  • PA-Pats

    The public education really shows here.  How about this hypothesis from the same data:
    When Tom Brady do well, the Patriots blows out their opponent.
    When Tom Brady struggles, the Patriots struggles.
    Said differently, as TB goes, so go the Patriots.
    Why do you think so many teams key on Tom Brady as the focus for their defense?
    DDDDUUUUUHHHHH …..

  • Bhdyer20

    So what you are saying is in close games he is the sixth quarterback out of 32 in passer rating?  I don’t exactly see that as a horrible performance and to further it only one of those others is still playing a game this weekend and isn’t that what actually counts. 

  • PATS RULE!

    like belicheck says stats are for losers and this guys a loser

  • Eastview

    Keep posting this crap and motivate him even more, please. It’s SO funny how all the writers from NY have convinced everyone that Eli’s better.

  • Dsbogus

    Brady won’t need a last minute drive on Sunday. 

  • TheDefenseRests

    Who is Craig Meyer (I actually had to check which spelling)?

  • eeiwritersuk

    All of these .com writers are a joke

  • Anonymous

    Brady throws 39 TD’s to 12 picks (105.6 rating) and over 5,200 yds this year, tied an NFL playoff record w/6TD passes, won the first ever unnanimous MVP last year while only throwing 4 picks, and that’s just skimming the cream off the top of a great past couple of years. Just because they haven’t went to the SB in the past 3 years doesn’t make any difference Mr. Meyer (you lemon). Most teams do not make the playoffs ever, Giants almost missed the playoffs. What that tells me is Tom Brady is the most consistant QB over the past 10-12 years, consistantly great.  I can’t wait till after the Pats hoist the Lombardi trophy when ALL the national media finally eat crow and are humbled past all humility. I’ll take Brady’s worst year (this year) over any QB in the last decade.

  • Anonymous

    Brady throws 39 TD’s to 12 picks (105.6 rating) and over 5,200 yds this year, tied an NFL playoff record w/6TD passes, won the first ever unnanimous MVP last year while only throwing 4 picks, and that’s just skimming the cream off the top of a great past couple of years. Just because they haven’t went to the SB in the past 3 years doesn’t make any difference Mr. Meyer (you lemon). Most teams do not make the playoffs ever, Giants almost missed the playoffs. What that tells me is Tom Brady is the most consistant QB over the past 10-12 years, consistantly great.  I can’t wait till after the Pats hoist the Lombardi trophy when ALL the national media finally eat crow and are humbled past all humility. I’ll take Brady’s worst year (this year) over any QB in the last decade.

  • TheFootballGuru

    lol….Brady lost again.  Had the ball late and couldnt win the game.  Granted….would have been tough to go 80 yards in 57 seconds.   But, for a god like you people think he is, should have been a piece of cake.  TB is good….but not as good as you people think he is.  Eli outplayed Tom in the SB.  Deal with it.

  • Homedepot

    his cast sucks and he is asked to do it all.  i found it comical that brady had a 77 rating against winning teams, three winning teams who happen to have best D’s in the league and realize the pats O is all about brady passing…….  hes the best no doubt,   name another one dimensional team with a great QB and no weapons whose been to 5 superbowls

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