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Stevan Ridley latest proof against first-round running backs in New England 11.27.12 at 4:44 pm ET
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As every team has learned over the years, there is no position that carries a guarantee early in the NFL draft. Name a position, and a team has swung and missed on it in the first round.

Stevan Ridley is seventh in the league in rushing yards. (AP)

The values of the various positions are debated year-round by draftniks, and there may be no discussion interesting than that of whether there is sufficient value in spending a first-round pick on a running back. The argument for it obvious: You can end up with a Barry Sanders, a LaDainian Tomlinson or an Adrian Peterson. The argument against it is that if given the same opportunity, a later-round back will provide similar numbers at a fraction of the cost, both in terms of money and draft pick.

Around these parts, football fans have seen enough over the years to suggest that running backs aren’t worth top draft currency. The likes of Curtis Martin (third-round) and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (undrafted) have proven to be lead backs (and in Martin’s case, a Hall of Famer), while the Patriots didn’t get long-term returns on their first-round investments in John Stephens, Robert Edwards and Laurence Maroney.

This season, Stevan Ridley, a third-round pick in the 2011 draft, is providing further proof that running backs aren’t worth a first-round pick. Of course, a third-round pick is nothing to sneeze at — teams should expect to get starters with their third-rounders — but what Ridley has been able to give the Pats has been as good as, if not better, than what other teams have gotten from their first-round backs.

Ridley, who is seventh in the league with 939 rushing yards, is one of 17 running backs on pace to finish the season with at least 1,000 yards on the ground. Of the 17, seven were first-round picks. Two were second-round picks (Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy), four were third-round picks (Ridley, Jamaal Charles, Frank Gore and Shonn Greene), one was a sixth-round pick (Alfred Morris), one was a seventh-round pick (Ahmad Bradshaw) and two were undrafted in Arian Foster (second in the league in rushing yards) and Green-Ellis.

Were he not to have been shut down for the season, Willis McGahee would have been on pace for 1,000 yards on ground. He would have also been the oldest of the backs to accomplish the feat this season at 31 years of age, so for the sake of gauging the effectiveness of first-round running backs these days, we’ll go back to McGahee’s draft year of 2003.

Since 2003, 28 running backs have been drafted in the first round. Of the 28, only 10 have had multiple 1,000-yard seasons. Eight have rushed for 1,000 yards once, while 10 have never picked up 1,000 yards in a season. That stat is a bit deceiving because two backs figure to pick up their first 1,000-yard seasons this year in C.J. Spiller (ninth overall in 2010) and rookie Trent Richardson (Doug Martin has already hit the mark with 1,050 yards thus far).

Even with Spiller and Richardson figuring to hit 1,000 yards this season, that leaves 16 of the 28 first-round running backs over the last 10 drafts (or 57 percent) who have had either one or zero 1,000 seasons.

Ridley is also outproducing a number of running backs drafted in the second round as well, a group that includes Shane Vereen, who was drafted a round ahead of him in 2011. Though Vereen has been given some goal-line carries and has three touchdowns this season, he has combined for 216 yards in 13 games over the last two years. That hardly justifies his selection in the second round thus far.

What Ridley has been able to do in his second year as a pro isn’t astonishing. He’s been given 206 carries over 11 games, and he’s proven to be worth those carries by averaging 4.6 yards a pop, which is 14th in the league. He’s also been the latest example in New England that you don’t need to make a big splash on draft day to have an effective running game.

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  • NYGEAST

    How many swings and misses do you get and still pat yourself on the back….hahahahahaha

  • Jimmy Freeze

    This is stupid logic…you can make the same case for every position on the team.  There’s always anecdotal evidence of some low or undrafted guys making the team…and even the HOF (see Tom Brady vs Payton Manning).  You can also make stats that say you shouldn’t pick a QB in the first round because there are several cases where they have busted.

    The issue is the probability of finding “a starter” in the 1st round vs 3rd rnd or later…and especially the probability of an All Pro/HOF caliber player in the 3rd round or later.  The real stats show a precipitous drop in the liklihood that a player will be an “impact player” after the middle of the 2nd round.  How long did Belichik try to find a bargain pass rusher in the 2nd/3rd round-passing on countless allstars, until he finally got aggressive and moved up to get one this year.

    At QB…would you rather take an Andy Dalton-who’s a decent player, or take a shot at Manning(s), Luck, RG3, Brees, etc…Dalton’s ok, but he won’t carry a team to super bowl contention for 10 years. 

    To use this logic, Teams should not pick in rounds 1-2 and only pick in round 3 or later…if the numbers prove this out, how come teams don’t do it?  These aren’t dumb people (well most anyway)

    Even the king of trading away high picks (BB) figured this out this year…that the only way to get impact defensive players was to pick them high in the 1st round…He also did some decent self scouting when he traded away the 4th to get Talib and a 7th.  His track record of finding good players in the 7th round is way above average…even better than his track record of finding guys in the middle rounds…so, this is a double win for the Pats.

  • Roger Christie

    The stronger argument against spending first round picks on RB is the short longevity the position has. Grab a CB, or a DE or a QB, and you’re looking at 10+ years if the guy can play. RB, a lot of them are spent after 4.

  • My10sense

    Robert Edwards was doing fine before the freak injury; he’s not a good example of wasting a draft pick on a running back.

  • http://twitter.com/Matt_kern64 Mathew Kern

    Crawford was 7th in the running for 6th man of the year … WOW, that’s something to brag about.

  • Otis

    Tommy Heinson must have got a vote this year

  • outraged

    I’m positive that that’s the explanation.

  • tom

    It be great if Paul Pierce broke both his legs so we do not have to watch the scum bag he sucks

  • pete

    Celtics eat shi”"”
    The worst players in the world play for the Celtics that’s why no one wants to play for them
    only rejects on the celtics
    Pierce Garnet are scum

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Louis-Carmichael/100002124912677 Louis Carmichael

    Boston Sport teams are finished. It pains me to say that but is the true. They had around 10 years of winning now is time to rebuild. Celtics are an old and washed up team. no one in that starting lineup averages 20 points a game. They just cant shoot. How can you expect to win like that? Patriots have a quarterback who although is one of the best has just 1 or 2 years left at the highest level. Red Sox although a nice start havent got those special players like before Manny, Ortiz in his prime, Pedro and Nomar cornerstone players who were stars. They have an average team now with hitters that will strikeout at any given time. They are a team that if everything goes well may qualify for the postseason but just like the Celtics will flame out in the first round too.

  • Uncle Buck

    Do you have anything else to do other than troll ? Pete, bill, tom, mike whatever you call yourself ? Total idiot.

  • Hao Asakura

    the celtics may be playing terrible right now BUT that doesn’t mean that you have the right to speak cruel words unto them.. can’t you see that these guys are still fighting even though the team suffered major disadvantage due to injuries..

    instead of throwing some criticism, why not show some respect to those who are trying their best to accomplish something.. i still have faith in these celtic team..

    i guess you were always messing things up while growing up and your parents didn’t put effort in supporting and believing in you that’s why you are acting this way.. you are just jealous ’cause even though this team is playing bad, there are still some fans who haven’t given up on them (the thing that your parents didn’t do to you, am i right?)..

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