|Fantasy Football: Top 50 wide receivers||07.23.14 at 1:03 pm ET|
Let’s take a look at the top 50 wide receivers. I’d planned on ranking just the top 36, which would represent the starters in 12-team leagues, but this year’s group is so deep that more players merit a mention. If you are looking for an even deeper take on this year’s receiving class, go to Rotobahn and check out our Top 300, which includes rankings and comments for over 100 receivers.
Just to be clear, these rankings reflect standard or performance scoring rather than PPR (point per reception) scoring. For a PPR take on the receivers, you can check out my 2014 projections.
Tier 1 (1-6)
- Calvin Johnson, Lions
- Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
- A.J. Green, Bengals
- Dez Bryant, Cowboys
- Julio Jones, Falcons
- Brandon Marshall, Bears
These are the monsters. They almost always come through and they’re all healthy. These guys aren’t just WR1 fantasy options, they are high-end WR1 options. You can anchor your receiving corps with any of them. In fact, we think the top five all have a solid shot at being No. 1 by season’s end. While we don’t quite see that high a ceiling for Marshall, we love his high floor and consistency. He also has the complete trust of his quarterback. The Jay Cutler-to-Marshall connection dates back to their rookie season as Broncos in 2006.
Tier 2 (7-10)
There’s not much drop-off from the first tier, but you have some smaller receivers and Jeffery has just the single season of greatness. Nelson is on the cusp of Tier 1, but I still have some concerns about him staying healthy and don’t feel that his top end goes quite as high as the options in the elite tier.
Tier 3 (11-14)
Here’s another group that signifies a small drop-off from the prior tier. Arizona’s Floyd and Fitzgerald are on par with Chicago’s Jeffery and Marshall, but we give the Bears duo a bump because we like Cutler a bit better than we do Carson Palmer. Johnson still is elite, but his quarterback is not … and his offense is in a state of flux. Allen has the look of a potential star, but he has a rough schedule in 2014 that features four contests against NFC West teams.
|Fantasy Football 2014: 20 high-value targets||07.17.14 at 11:50 am ET|
Let’s take a look at draft value based on a player’s average draft position. It’s a good way to get a quick feel for where the big values might be in drafts when August rolls around. As we like to do at Rotobahn, we’ll be counting the values down from late selections to the early ones. Jim Hackett and I will get into some of these players in Friday’s podcast, so be sure to check that out. For a look at our take on the top 200 fantasy options for 2014, head on over to Rotobahn.com, where you will also find scouting reports on over 60 rookies and early projections for the upcoming season.
ADP data was obtained at Fantasy Football Calculator.
Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns — ADP 224
He’s not being drafted at all in smaller leagues, and you can get him very late in large formats, as his ADP indicates. That’s not bad for a player who could be the Browns’ top receiver in 2014. Frankly, if he stays healthy, I can’t see anybody else on the roster outplaying him. In fairness, that speaks to how underrated Hawkins currently is, but it also speaks to how woefully thin Cleveland is at receiver.
Odell Beckham, WR, Giants — ADP 163
Do not wait until 163 to draft this guy. Beckham, for whatever reason, is being ignored in fantasy circles and we think he’s a potential WR3 in 12-team leagues. As we said in his Rotobahn scouting report, Beckham has perhaps the best hands we’ve seen since we scouted Michael Crabtree. He’s also got all the skills you want a receiver to have, including outstanding agility and speed. He should fit right into the Giants offense and could be a fantasy force from Day 1. He’s a steal at his current ADP.
Justin Hunter, WR, Titans — ADP 159
Hunter’s ADP has risen about 10 spots over the last month … and he’ll jump a bit more before most of us draft, but he still projects as a value this season. He should be ready to take a step forward in 2014, and with Kenny Britt now gone, Hunter’s snap totals should more than double. We expect him to be a starter or an in-effect starter. He has a chance to post double-digit scores if things go well in Tennessee. Hunter is by far the most explosive athlete the Titans have on offense. He has WR1 upside in long-term leagues and has the upside to be a WR2 this year. He should be off the board somewhere around the 100 mark in our opinion. He’s a potential steal right now.
Aaron Dobson, WR, Patriots — ADP 138
This could change, and you may pay a bit more for him in this part of the country, but Dobson is a pretty solid WR3 option in 12-team leagues if he’s healthy — and the news on his foot has been positive lately. If he’s starting at split end, he’s worth a pick closer to 100 overall, and he’d still have some upside there due to his touchdown potential.
Marvin Jones, WR, Bengals — ADP 129
As with Hunter, Jones’ ADP has risen a bit this summer and he’ll move up another round, and perhaps more in the coming weeks, but we still like him at that price tag. He’s a much more complete player than he gets credit for, and he should have no problem holding on to the starter’s spot opposite A.J. Green. He looks like a borderline WR3 to us in 12-team leagues with upside to be more.
|Fantasy Football: Postseason rankings, strategy||01.02.14 at 10:27 am ET|
The fantasy football season has concluded, but as most of you know, fantasy football lives on with postseason leagues. We’re here to help you stack the odds in your favor or at least to avoid doing the opposite.
Playoff leagues can be a lot of fun, and they are completely different than regular-season fantasy football. The key difference is that predicting game outcomes is perhaps the key factor in your team’s success. In most situations, you’d rather have your player advance than have a big game and lose. That’s because once your player’s team is finished, so is the player. That means no more points and a big old dead spot in your lineup. For this reason, it is important to project the number of games each team will play.
You may think Philip Rivers is a better quarterback than Colin Kaepernick, but if you think the Chargers are a one-and-done team as I do, and if you think the 49ers have a chance to play four games (the maximum), as I do, then you’d be kooky to draft Rivers ahead of Kaepernick. This is true even if you project Rivers to outscore Kaepernick by a factor of two on a per-game basis. This is how you must think in a playoff draft. Get in that frame of mind — the same frame of mind that makes you want LeGarrette Blount over Jamaal Charles. Yes, really.
Since leagues are different sizes and many use different sets of rules, I am going to keep the rankings somewhat general. The first thing you need to do is to decide how you think the playoff games will go, then follow those predictions. I’ve laid out my current take below, but I won’t lie to you, I could flip a few games this week as I continue to think about things and assess the injury situations. Some of these games are very close. Value players accordingly. For example, I think Kaepernick plays twice, but I also think he’s the player with the best chance at playing four times. It will take an upset of the Seahawks in Seattle to make that happen, but Frisco probably is the best bet to pull that off at this point.
GAMES PLAYED PROJECTIONS
If you look at the projections, you might assume that Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson are the players to own. And they certainly are players you’d like to have, but a few of the quarterbacks with two projected games played are potentially as or more valuable. I already mentioned Kaepernick, but Tom Brady will have a very good chance at a third game, and I see most of the early round games being competitive. For this, I suggest that you play your own hunches if you have strong ones and if you trust your instincts. That’s really what make these postseason leagues so much fun. You get to do more prognostication.
|Fantasy Football: Week 17 starts, sits||12.27.13 at 10:38 am ET|
Welcome to the final installment of the 2013 starts and sits. Week 17 is always tricky, which is why the vast majority of fantasy leagues opt to use Week 16 as their bowl week. It’s tricky because you never know which teams are going to pull their starters early and which teams will play to win for 60 minutes. I’ll do my best to warn you off of a few options and to highlight some safer plays. We’ll be doing full Week 17 lineup rankings at Rotobahn, so feel free to head over if you require any additional clarity. I’ll also be back at WEEI at 11 a.m. Sunday for our final chat, so stop by if you have any lineup questions.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers vs. Browns
They play at 1 p.m., so the Steelers will go out there guns blazing to see if they can put some pressure on the teams ahead of them. They post big numbers when they get the offense going, so Roethlisberger is a solid option in any league this week against a Browns defense that’s been shaky lately.
Andrew Luck, Colts vs. Jaguars
He’s got a decent home matchup and it’s indoors, so we don’t need to worry about weather. The Colts have something to play for at this point, though they would need some help from the Patriots and Bengals. It’s an early game, so they won’t know their fate when they play. Luck is a viable starter in any home matchup. Start him if you need him.
Andy Dalton, Bengals vs. Ravens
The Bengals play early and they can put pressure on the Patriots in the race for the bye if they can win. You can count on the Bengals pushing as hard as they can for four quarters. Dalton is a solid play if you need a Week 17 quarterback. His offensive weaponry makes him dangerous on a weekly basis.
Kirk Cousins, Redskins at Giants
If you really need an option, Cousins should give you solid production, though this is not as good a matchup as he had last week. Washington’s temporary starter is a viable option in 12-team leagues with a hot No. 1 receiver and a stout running game to work off of. There is a chance of rain in the forecast, but nothing as epic as what we saw last week.
|Fantasy Football: Week 17 waiver wire||12.24.13 at 8:57 am ET|
Welcome to the Week 17 waiver wire. I know it’s championship week for those of you left out there and it’s a really tough way to play your biggest game, because we’ll have a lot of players taking this week off or at least playing under very limited snap counts. So I’ll do my best to find you a few good options. One good idea is to come back later this week for the starts and sits, where I will try to find some of the key sits based on playing time or a predictable lack thereof. As always, I will be expanding the waiver wire for those of you in deeper formats, so head over to Rotobahn if you are a deep leaguer in need of even more ideas. I will also be doing our usual Rotobahn lineup rankings for Week 17, so check back later this week for that.
Jay Cutler, Bears
He was mediocre last week, but he is one of the more talented options out there, so he is very worthy of a plug-n-play this weekend at home against the Packers. Green Bay has been suspect defending the pass and the Bears have incredible talent at all of the receiving spots.
Kirk Cousins, Redskins
He’s a viable play at the Giants in a game that is meaningless for both teams. Washington is not going to play conservative when it is trying to increase Cousins’ market value. The ball is going to be in the air. Cousins is not a QB1, but he can help you if you need an option.
Terrelle Pryor, Raiders
Pryor will start in place of Matt McGloin this week and he’s an very interesting option. The Broncos are locked in and they will be playing without stud pass rusher Von Miller. Pryor may not be the long-term answer for Oakland, but he has fantasy upside this week because he makes plays with his arm and with his legs. If you are hurting in a deep league, he’s a viable option.
|Fantasy Football: Week 16 starts, sits||12.20.13 at 9:09 am ET|
Welcome to the Week 16 starts and sits! I’ve tried to find some good recommendations that aren’t too obvious. I’ve thrown in a few that I just wanted to emphasize, like Chris Johnson and Shane Vereen, who I think should be locked into lineups. Obviously, there is a lot of talent that we do not address in this article, so hit Rotobahn for our full lineup rankings. And on Sunday, stop by WEEI for our Sunday chat at 11 a.m. I’ll be happy to address any last-minute decisions you may have. Good luck to all this week! Bring home the hardware!
Kirk Cousins, Redskins vs. Cowboys
Talk about tricky! There are some very compelling reasons to consider Cousins as your quarterback for Week 16. The obvious one is the matchup at home against the defenseless Cowboys. I know a lot of people are talking about risk. Sure, there always is some uncertainly with an inexperienced quarterback. Then again, there’s risk playing Tom Brady on the road vs. the Ravens. At least there is from a fantasy football perspective. With Cousins, we see a lot more reasons to play him than to sit him. Here’s the most compelling one: Washington is marketing the player. Cousins is an asset that the Redskins need to maximize, as they have holes all over their roster. A lot of football experts see Cousins as a potential NFL starter, and we agree. The Redskins wants draft pick compensation for Cousins, and they are going to throw the football. And, with their defense, they’ll need to do it for four quarters. Cousins can help you if you have a need at quarterback. He’s an obvious choice for those who’ve been using Robert Griffin III.
Andrew Luck, Colts at Chiefs
Quite simply, he is capable in any matchup. I would not hesitate to play Luck in Week 16. Yes, the matchup is tough, but Luck has stepped it up on the road against tough defenses before. Look at what he did to the Bengals a few weeks ago. Luck is a viable option in any format this week. Check out our lineup rankings if you have a strong second option to consider.
Andy Dalton, Bengals vs. Vikings
As with Luck, Dalton falls outside of my top 12 for Week 16 but remains a very solid option with plenty of scoring potential. Dalton can be your starter this week if you need him. He has outstanding receiving options, and most of them are red zone guys.
Alex Smith, Chiefs vs. Colts
It’s often ugly or random, but Smith almost always ends up with good numbers at the end of the day. Another fact worthy of a mention is his success at home, where he’s had only one weak fantasy start all year long. Smith can be your quarterback this week if you need him.
|Fantasy Football: Week 16 waiver wire||12.17.13 at 9:23 am ET|
And then there were two … Congratulations to all the teams in their league’s final game. The Week 16 dynamic is a bit unusual and this article reflects that. What we want this week are players that might be available, who can tip the scales for either you or your opponent. There are some leagues that have different rules. Perhaps your league has a second game between the semifinal losers, for third place. Whatever the case, the team you want to work against in this week’s free agent market is your opponent.
First, look at your roster. Do you have a weak spot in your lineup that can be strengthened in free agency? That should be your first priority — maximizing your Week 16 lineup. Second, look at your opponent’s roster. Do they have a weak spot that can be improved via the waiver wire? If they do, that is a move that you might consider blocking if you have waiver priority or a larger remaining free agent budget. Lastly, you can be aggressive with your cuts now. There’s nothing left to save for. You’re here. The only players you truly need are the ones who will be in your lineup this week, so don’t be afraid to manage your roster with that in mind and cut players who can’t help your opponent this week.
For example, let’s say that you have Rashard Mendenhall as your fifth running back. You are not playing him this week and he’s got a brutal matchup at Seattle. Your opponent has injuries at running back and horrible matchups with what he has left. You think he’ll go after Jordan Todman in free agency. In this case, I would dump Mendenhall and add Todman, who I project to outscore Mendenhall by about 10 points this week. You won’t play Todman as you would not have played Mendenhall, but you’ve hurt your opponent’s potential score and helped yourself.
So, get in that frame of mind and see all the angles. One more win and you’re a champion. Having said all that, I will be back next week just in case you play in one of those bizarre leagues that use Week 17 as its championship week. We’ve got you covered. As always, I will be adding talent throughout the day at Rotobahn as I continue to work through the film from Week 15. Come by later if you play in a really deep format.
Kirk Cousins, Redskins
He had a very nice outing against Atlanta, and he is a very good fantasy play in Week 16 if you’ve been streaming quarterbacks. A home matchup against Dallas is about as good as it gets right now. Cousins is a very good option.
Jay Cutler, Bears
He was dumped in a good many leagues after his injury, so he could be a nice addition for those of you looking for quarterback help. Cutler has a very nice Week 16 matchup at Philadelphia, and his receivers are insanely good.
Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
Give Tannehill a lot of credit for hanging tough behind a reconstructed offensive line. He continues to make plays on a weekly basis and is on a nice four-week run of production. He’s a solid option this week at Buffalo if you need help at quarterback.
Joe Flacco, Ravens
He’s available in about 50 percent of leagues, so he’s worth mentioning, since he’s playing for something and has a solid Week 16 matchup at home vs. the Patriots. I’d rather start Cousins, Cutler or Tannehill, but Flacco is viable.
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